000 AGXX40 KNHC 210618 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 125 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A FRONTAL TROUGH IS DISSIPATING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. RETURN FLOW HAS SET UP W OF 88W AND SHOULD SPREAD E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BY MID MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DIPS INTO THE EXTREME NW WATERS BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATES. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH BUT STALL OVER THE TX COASTAL PLAINS ON WED AND DISSIPATE WED NIGHT AS SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AGAIN OVER NW PORTION IN ADVANCE OF A THIRD COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS LATE THU NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A 20-25 KT SW-NW WIND SHIFT WITH CAA INCREASING THE NLY FLOW TO 30 KT W OF FRONT BY LATE SAT. GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE POST-FRONTAL NLY FLOW MAXING AT 30 KT...AND ALSO THE SPEED OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE SE OF AREA SAT MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY STALLED OVER THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN BUT SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT...THEN DRIFT S AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED NIGHT. NLY POST-FRONTAL SWELLS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 12 FT NEAR 22N55W AT SUNRISE THU...WITH THIS ROUND OF N SWELLS PROPAGATING S AND REACHING S AMERICA ALONG 07N BY SUNRISE FRI. THE TRADES HAVE RELAXED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA....BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT AND WED AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THU AND INCREASE THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SE INTO THE YUCATAN PASSAGE FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT FROM 31N60W TO CENTRAL CUBA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SE TO A POSITION FROM 23N55W TO HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. A MINIMAL GALE CONTINUES N OF 29N EITHER SIDE OF FRONT OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN 65W AND 55W AND THESE GALE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT TO ONLY E OF THE FRONT LATER TODAY AND SHIFT E OF 55W. LARGE POST-FRONTAL NLY SWELL WILL DRIVE COMBINED SEAS TO 15 FT OVER THE WATERS JUST S OF BERMUDA TODAY...BUT TO 20 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 65W AND 55W. THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE S REACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN AT ABOUT 10 FT LATE WED NIGHT. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE NE FL COAST LATE TONIGHT AND QUICKLY SPREAD E ACROSS ALL WATERS W OF 65W TONIGHT. THE SLY FLOW INCREASES FROM THE NW TO SE WED NIGHT AND THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS E TO THE N OF THE AREA ON THU. THE SLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN ON FRI AHEAD OF A STRONGER FRONT MOVING OFF THE GA COAST FRI EVENING...AND PASSING THROUGH THE NW AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SAT AND TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT SUNRISE SUN. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE...GALE WARNING N OF 29N E OF 65W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON