000 AGXX40 KNHC 201846 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST MON FEB 20 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER AND IMMEDIATELY STALL OVER THE EXTREME NW GULF TUE MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK INLAND AS A WEAK WARM FRONT TUE AFTERNOON AS SLY FLOW BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NW WATERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND STALL OVER THE TX COASTAL PLAINS ON WED AND DISSIPATE WED NIGHT AS SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AGAIN OVER NW PORTION IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF THU NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A 20-25 KT SW-NW WIND SHIFT. THE FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI AFTERNOON...THEN E OF THE AREA SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NE GULF. HE GFS GUIDANCE IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND PUSHES THIS FRONT WITH A HINT OF MINIMAL GALE OVER THE EXTREME SW GULF FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE...THUS WILL FORECAST A MAX OF 30 KT BEHIND FRONT THIS PACKAGE. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... COLD FRONT FROM 31N69W TO WESTERN CUBA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY E AND EXTEND FROM 25N65W TO HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. A MINIMAL GALE CONTINUES N OF 29N EITHER SIDE OF FRONT WITH GALE CONDITIONS SHIFTING E OF 65W LATE TONIGHT. LARGE NLY SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 15 FT OVER THE AREA JUST S OF BERMUDA TONIGHT THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE S REACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN AT ABOUT 10 FT ON WED NIGHT. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE NE FL COAST LATE TONIGHT AND QUICKLY SPREAD E ACROSS ALL WATERS W OF 65W TUE NIGHT. THE SLY FLOW INCREASES FROM THE NW TO SE THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION LATE FRI AND AND EXTEND FROM 31N71W TO WESTERN CUBA SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... COLD FRONT ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL MOVE SE ACROSS CUBA AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE FROM HISPANIOLA TO CANCUN MEXICO TUE NIGHT. THE SAME FRONT WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TUE AFTERNOON THEN DRIFT S AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED NIGHT. NLY SWELLS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE N PORTION THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE WED NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT FOLLOWED BY N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT IN YUCATAN CHANNEL...THEN WEAKEN SAT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 29N E OF 70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER DGS