000 AGXX40 KNHC 200620 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 125 AM EST MON FEB 20 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A DRY COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH THE FL STRAITS ATTM WITH NLY POST-FRONTAL WINDS AT ONLY 15 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS E OF 88W...WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALREADY CLOCKED TO SE OVER THE EXTREME NW WATERS. THIS SLY RETURN FLOW WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY SUNSET TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER AND IMMEDIATELY STALL OVER THE EXTREME NW GULF TUE MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK INLAND AS A WEAK WARM FRONT TUE AFTERNOON AS SLY FLOW BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NW WATERS. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND STALL OVER THE TX COASTAL PLAINS ON WED AND DISSIPATE WED NIGHT AS SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AGAIN OVER NW PORTION IN ADVANCE OF A FOURTH COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS THU NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A 20-25 KT SW-NW WIND SHIFT. THE GFS GUIDANCE IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND PUSHES THIS FOURTH FRONT SE INTO THE FL STRAITS FRI NIGHT WITH A HINT OF MINIMAL GALE OVER THE EXTREME SW WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE...THUS WILL FORECAST A MAX OF 30 KT BEHIND FRONT THIS PACKAGE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE SE AT ONLY 10-15 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO CONTINUE SE ACROSS CUBA AND EVENTUALLY WASH OUT FROM HISPANIOLA TO CANCUN MEXICO INTO TUE NIGHT. THE SAME FRONT WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TUE AFTERNOON...THEN DRIFT S AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED NIGHT. NLY POST-FRONTAL SWELLS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 11 FT NEAR 22N55W AT SUNRISE THU...WITH THIS ROUND OF N SWELLS PROPAGATING S AND REACHING S AMERICA ALONG 07N BY SUNRISE FRI. OTHERWISE... MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG AS THE REGION MID WEEK AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS. BEST GUESS FOR NOW IS THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT FOLLOWED BY N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT IN YUCATAN CHANNEL...BUT TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT FROM 31N73W TO THE FL STRAITS THIS MORNING WILL RACE SE TO A POSITION FROM 25N55W TO HISPANIOLA TUE AFTERNOON. A MINIMAL GALE CONTINUES N OF 29N EITHER SIDE OF FRONT WITH GALE CONDITIONS SHIFTING E OF 65W TONIGHT AND E OF 55W ON TUE. LARGE POST-FRONTAL NLY SWELL WILL DRIVE COMBINED SEAS TO 18 FT OVER THE WATERS JUST S OF BERMUDA LATE TODAY...AND TO 22 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 65W AND 55W TONIGHT. THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE S REACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN AT ABOUT 10 FT ON WED NIGHT. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ALONG THE NE FL COAST LATE TONIGHT AND QUICKLY SPREAD E ACROSS ALL WATERS W OF 65W TUE NIGHT. THE SLY FLOW INCREASES FROM THE NW TO SE THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH THE GFS GUIDANCE SHOWS ENTERING THE NW PORTION LATE FRI AND REACHING THE NW BAHAMAS LATE FRI NIGHT...BUT PERHAPS A LITTLE TOO FAST. ANYWAY...MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE PACKAGES AS A STRONG FRONT MAY EFFECT THE NW BAHAMAS NEXT WEEKEND. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 29N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON