000 AGXX40 KNHC 191854 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 154 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... DEEPENING 1006 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA ALONG THE GEORGIA/ALABAMA BORDER NEAR 33N85W WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. A 1458 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS S OF 25N AND FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS N OF 25N AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUOY OBSERVATIONS REPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS N OF 25N E OF 90W. ALSO...SEAS ARE UP TO 10 FT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS/OFFSHORE WATERS BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY RACE E OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND IT FROM THE NW. THE HIGH SHIFTS NE OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE NW PORTION TUE WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE BY TUE NIGHT. A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS WED LIFTING NE-E OF THE AREA THU WITH ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGING IN FROM THE E AND DOMINATING THE GULF WATERS BY LATE THU. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF FRI WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND IT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A 1500 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG WITH E-SE 20 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. OTHERWISE MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN. SEAS ARE UP TO 9 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS WITH MAINLY 3-6 FT ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...STALLING OUT ALONG 20N MON AND DISSIPATING MON NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL THEN BEGIN TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE WHICH WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN IN THE LEE OF CUBA WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER. LARGE NW SWELL UP TO 13 FT WILL CLIP THE NE PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE WED THROUGH FRI BEHIND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO THE E. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COVERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH IS IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS TONIGHT REACHING FROM 31N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY MON MORNING...THEN PUSHING E OF THE AREA TUE. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT N OF 29N AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT COMMENCING AT 06Z MON AND CONTINUING FOR THE WATERS W OF 65W UNTIL 06Z TUE. GALE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT E OF 55W TUE AFTERNOON. LARGE NW SWELL TO 17 FT WILL PROPAGATE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS IN THE NE PORTION. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH TUE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP TUE NIGHT AND WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS THU MORNING RETREATING N OF 31N LATE THU AS THE CENTRAL ATLC HIGH RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA STRENGTHENS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH FRI. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 29N LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY