000 AGXX40 KNHC 190622 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 125 AM EST SUN FEB 19 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LOW PRES CENTERED OVER THE THE N-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE NE OF AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL RACE SE OF AREA LATE SUN NIGHT BUT LEAVE SOME REMNANTS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LATEST PRECIP GUIDANCE NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE AND EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION TO BE CONFINED TO THE NE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT SLY FLOW TO MAX AT 30 KT OVER THE NE WATERS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SQUALL LINE. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BACKED OFF ON STRENGTH OF POST-FRONTAL NLY FLOW...AND WILL FORECAST A MAX OF 25 KT TODAY AND QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT TONIGHT WITH SLY RETURN FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE NW WATERS BY SUNRISE MON. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CLOCK TO SE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE MON NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER AND STALL OVER THE EXTREME NW GULF TUE MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NW GULF BY TUE EVENING. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS WED THE STALL OVER THE SE GULF LATE THU. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE SE AT 15 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT...AND STALL FROM E CUBA TO CANCUN MEXICO MON NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY WASH OUT BY LATE TUE. THE SAME FRONT WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE TUE...THEN DRIFT S AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY THU. NLY POST-FRONTAL SWELLS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 13 FT NEAR 22N55W AT SUNRISE THU...WITH THIS ROUND OF N SWELLS PROPAGATING S AND REACHING S AMERICA ALONG 07N THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EASTWARD TO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TUE THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N57W TO 29N65W TO SE GA WILL LIFT NE TODAY IN INCREASING SLY FLOW WHICH WILL REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE THIS EVENING TO THE N OF 30N BETWEEN 73W-79W AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE SUN NIGHT WITH GALE CONDITIONS ALSO DEVELOPING W OF THE FRONT TO 79W. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N60W TO THE MONA PASSAGE MON NIGHT AS GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUING BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 65W AND 55W THROUGH LATE TUE. LARGE NLY SWELL WILL DRIVE COMBINED SEAS TO 15 FT OVER THE WATERS JUST SW OF BERMUDA MON...WITH THESE SWELLS REACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN ON WED. SLY RETURN FLOW SETS ALONG THE NE FL COAST EARLY TUE AND QUICKLY SPREADS E ACROSS ALL WATERS W OF 65W TUE NIGHT. THE SLY FLOW INCREASES FROM THE NW TO SE WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW PORTION EARLY THU. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 30N E OF FRONT AND N OF 29N W OF FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON