000 AGXX40 KNHC 180637 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 135 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING AND LIFT NE OF AREA LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRES IS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO RACE NE ACROSS E TX TODAY...REACHING E-CENTRAL LA TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY CONVECTIVE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...OFF THE TX COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT PASSING SE OF AREA LATE SUN NIGHT. EXPECT SLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT TO 25 KT AND NLY FLOW W OF FRONT TO 30 KT. BY THE TIME THE FRONT CLEARS THE FL STRAITS LATE SUN NIGHT SLY RETURN FLOW AT 15 KT WILL HAVE SET OVER THE NW WATERS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CLOCK TO THE E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BY SUNRISE TUE...THEN CLOCK TO THE SE TUE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY OFF THE TX COAST LATE WED. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO NE FL WILL STALL E-W ALONG 28N W OF 65W THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEGMENT OF THE FRONT E OF 65W WILL CONTINUE E WHILE THE SEGMENT W OF 65W WILL LIFT NE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT WITH THE SLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-30 KT...EXCEPT 30-35 KT LATE SUN N OF 30N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE NE FL COAST SUN EVENING. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MON NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 65W AND 55W. THE POST-FRONTAL NLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN GALE CONDITIONS N OF 29N WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM W OF FRONT THROUGH LATE MON. WINDS WILL CLOCK TO SE OVER THE NW WATERS LATE MON NIGHT WITH THESE SLY CONDITIONS SPREADING E TO ALL WATERS N OF 27N W OF 65W TUE NIGHT. THE SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE EXTREME NW WATERS EARLY WED NIGHT... THEN BECOME SW AT 20-25 KT BY SUNRISE THU. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT THEN WEAKEN MON. A SHEAR LINE WILL DEVELOP NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TUE AND WED. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTHWARD N OF THE REGION. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 30N ALONG FRONT SUN AND MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON