000 AGXX40 KNHC 161821 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST THU FEB 16 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND MOVE N ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A WARM FRONT FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES WILL FORM OVER THE NW GULF SAT THEN MOVE RAPIDLY E-NE ACROSS SE U.S. AS AN INTENSE LOW PRES SYSTEM SAT NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE NW GULF SAT AS THE LOW DEVELOPS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE GULF SUN. WINDS WILL VEER EASTWARD MON AND TUE AS SE FLOW RETURNS TO THE W GULF. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 27N/28N THROUGH FRI NIGHT WILL SHIFT E SAT. A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME STATIONARY ALONG 29N/30N THROUGH SAT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST SUN. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT NIGHT AND SUN. EXPECT SW WINDS 25-30 KT SUN AND SUN NIGHT N OF 28N SHIFTING W-NW BEHIND FRONT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N79W TO DAYTONA FLORIDA SUN...FROM 31N74W TO MIAMI FLORIDA SUN NIGHT...FROM 31N65W TO EASTERN CUBA MON...AND TRANSITION INTO A SHEAR LINE IN THE SE PORTION TUE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI...THEN SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT THEN WEAKEN MON AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS S ACROSS THE REGION. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL