000 AGXX40 KNHC 141850 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF EXTENDS FROM PANAMA CITY FL TO NEAR 26N94W WHERE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE. SURFACE OBS FROM BUOYS AND OIL PLATFORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWED 20-30 KT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT THE FRONT HAS LOST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE AROUND 20 KT. AN ASCAT PASS AT 1500 UTC SHOWED 15-20 KT WINDS N OF 25N E OF THE FRONT. WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT W OF THE FRONT IN THE NW GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND WED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO THU...FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NORTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI THEN DISSIPATE SAT. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR LESS WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES WILL FORM OVER THE NW GULF FRI NIGHT AND SAT THEN RACE E-NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S OF THE LOW...AND A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...SAT NIGHT AND SUN. EXPECT 20-25 KT N-NW WINDS W OF THE COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT AND SUN...AND 20 KT SW WINDS N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM 21N62W ACROSS E PUERTO RICO INTO EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING W-SW FROM 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 31N67W TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA DOMINATES THE REGION. WINDS ARE E-NE IN EASTERN HALF AND S OF 23N...AND S-SE ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA EARLY WED...WITH FRESH SW WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WED AND WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BRUSH PAST THE NORTHERN PORTION THROUGH THU AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE SETS UP ALONG 28N. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FRI AS A COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA FRI AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BRUSH PAST THE NORTHERN PORTION AND EXTEND FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA SAT...AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM 28N65W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS SUN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM 21N62W ACROSS E PUERTO RICO TO 17N69W TO 16N77W...WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS LOCATED 60 TO 90 NM N OF THE SHEAR LINE. THE SHEAR LINE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU...THEN BECOME DIFFUSE BY THU NIGHT. A HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF THE AREA ALONG 28N WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE-FRESH E-NE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SAT. TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUN AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E OF 60W. A COLD FRONT NEARING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL CAUSE WINDS N OF 18N IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TO LIGHTEN AND VEER S-SE SUNDAY. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC SEAS WILL BE HIGHER N OF 15N THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN NW SWELL WILL MIX WITH NE SWELL FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH SEAS REMAINING 7-9 FT THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5-6 FT THIS WEEKEND. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL