000 AGXX40 KNHC 101747 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1245 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE LOW 1016 MB AT 26N95W HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING N TO S ALONG 94-95W. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE DRIFT NE TO NEAR 27N93W THIS EVENING AND THEN BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN GULF WATERS EARLY TONIGHT. THE MERGED FRONT WILL RACE SE OF AREA ON SAT AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT...AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS BY LATE MON. GUIDANCE ALREADY CHANGING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...NOW EXPECTED TO RACE E ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS MON NIGHT BUT STALL OVER THE FL PANHANDLE TUE NIGHT...THEN LIFT N OF AREA WED AS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS FROM TAMPA BAY TO TX COASTAL BEND. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING 31N55W TO 28N70W TO SE FL WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT N IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE GA COAST THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N75W TO THE FL STRAITS ON SAT...FROM BERMUDA TO WINDWARD PASSAGE SAT NIGHT...FROM 31N61W TO 27N65W TO HISPANIOLA ON SUN...THEN FROM 27N55W TO MONA PASSAGE MON...THE DISSIPATE ALONG 23N55W TO MONA PASSAGE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE NW WATERS MON NIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TUE AND WED AS NEXT FRONT APPROACHES...BUT SEEMS TO DIP S TO ALONG 31.5N LATE WED. PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A MINIMAL GALE WILL DEVELOP WITHIN N OF 30N WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM W OF FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT...WITH THE NW WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISHING JUST BELOW GALE SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING. A SECONDARY SURGE WILL DRIVE WINDS BACK UP TO MINIMAL GALE OVER THE WATERS N OF 29N W OF FRONT SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...WHILE ALSO INCREASING THE SW FLOW OVER THE WATERS N OF 30N WITHIN ABOUT 240 NM E OF THE FRONT. GALE CONDITION SHIFT N OF AREA SUN EVENING. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL ATLC MAINTAINS ELY TRADE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW CARIBBEAN...SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT AND STALLS AND DISSIPATES FROM 22N61W TO THE MONA PASSAGE TO NICARAGUA MON AND TUE. NLY WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT W OF THE FRONT..THEN DIMINISH AND BECOME ELY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT WITH TRADES BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 30N WITHIN 90 NM OF FRONT TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. GALE WARNING N OF 29N W OF FRONT SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...AND ALSO N OF 30N WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT. .CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON