000 AGXX40 KNHC 091829 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST THU FEB 09 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK 1016 MB LOW PRES CENTERED IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT N TO 25N95W FRI...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW PRES IS POSSIBLY ENHANCING NORTHERLY WINDS ON ITS WEST SIDE...CLOSE TO THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. GIVEN HOW WEAK THE LOW PRES IS HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE WINDS ARE NOT IN EXCESS OF 30 KT AND WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE LOW PRES BEING ABSORBED INTO A AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE FRI INTO SAT. THE FRONT WILL REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS 24N BY EARLY SAT...FOLLOWED BY FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOTICEABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UPSTREAM OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE REINFORCING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE PUSHING THROUGH THE SE UNITED STATES AND OVER THE NE GULF BY SUN. GFS AND UKMET SHOW STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT THAT WILL PROMOTE 20 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER MOSTLY THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SAT. THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SUN...ALLOWING FRESH RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE NW GULF BY LATE SUN INTO MON...AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EARLIER ECMWF SHOW A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LOUISIANA BY LATE MON...THEN LIFTING NE THROUGH TUE. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THEN CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE FLOW IS NOTED N OF THE FRONT...WITH SEAS JUST REACHING 8 FT. LIGHT S TO SW FLOW IS NOTED S OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA AND WEAKEN...DISSIPATING BY EARLY SAT. A SECOND FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST BY LATE FRI...REACH FROM 31N75W TO S FLORIDA BY EARLY SAT...AND FROM NEAR THE BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY SUN. A DEVELOPING GALE CENTER N OF THE AREA WILL FOSTER STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N SAT...WITH 20 TO 25 KT NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW SW GALES AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N BY EARLY SAT. FORECAST REFLECTS BLEND OF GFS ENSEMBLE WITH MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF AND UKMET. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES. A ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA N OF THE BAHAMAS BY LATE SUN...ALLOWING 20 TO 25 KT NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH INTO MON ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 8 TO 14 FT RANGE OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST N OF THE BAHAMAS AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRES DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL ATLC MAINTAINS STEADY FLOW OF FRESH ELY BREEZES ACROSS MOST OF BASIN EXCEPT AROUND COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THERMAL LOW PRES 1010 MB INCREASES NE WINDS TO 25 KT...AS NOTED ON A 1506 UTC ASCAT PASS. WINDS DIMINISH SAT AS THE RIDGE PUSHES E AND LOW PRES WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY LATE SAT...THEN STALLS AND DISSIPATES FROM 22N62W TO EASTERN CUBA TO NE YUCATAN BY LATE MON. HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT N OF THE AREA SUN INTO MON. FRESH EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH E SWELL TO 12 FT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN