000 AGXX40 KNHC 090802 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 AM EST THU FEB 09 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK 1016 MB LOW PRES DEVELOPED AT 20N93W EMBEDDED IN E-W TROUGH TO NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES CENTER 1030 MB OVER SE STATES MAINTAINS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WITH STEADY FLOW OF MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE BREEZE ACROSS REMAINDER OF BASIN. MODEL GUIDANCE DRIVE LOW PRES CENTER N-NE THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES DRIFTS E INTO ATLC...BUT DISSIPATE IT WITHIN 72 HRS WHEN NEW RIDGE BUILD OVER SOUTHERN STATES. NEW RIDGE BRINGS BACK FRESH TO STRONG E-NE FLOW WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-12 FT IN E SWELL W OF 90W BY LATE SUN. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... WEAK LOW PRES AT 29N74W WITH STATIONARY TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO SE FLORIDA WILL BE SWEPT AWAY BY INCOMING COLD FRONT PRESENTLY FROM 31N75W TO 28N80W MOVING E. MERGED BOUNDARY WILL REACH FROM 31N66W TO NW BAHAMAS THU...FROM 29N65W TO 26N72W FRI AND E OF BASIN SAT. SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTER NW CORNER EARLY SAT WITH STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AND STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND IT. BY EARLY SUN MOST OF BASIN N OF 26N IS UNDER STRONG NORTHERLIES AND SEAS TO 9-12 FT AND REACHING 15 FT EXTREME NE CORNER OF SW N ATLC ZONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL ATLC MAINTAINS STEADY FLOW OF FRESH ELY BREEZE ACROSS MOST OF BASIN EXCEPT AROUND COAST OF COLOMBIA HERE THERMAL LOW PRES 1010 MB INCREASES NE WINDS TO 25 KT. WINDS DIMINISH SAT AS RIDGE PUSHES E AND LOW PRES WEAKENS. PREVIOUS SWELL HAS SUBSIDED AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW 8 FT EXCEPT ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA. TAIL END OF STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING SW N ATLC REACHES INTO YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ENTERS NW CARIBBEAN LATE SAT AND SUN WITH STRONG N-NE BREEZE MAINLY N OF 17N W OF 78W. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES