000 AGXX40 KNHC 081947 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST WED FEB 08 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST NW OF WESTERN CUBA W TO 22N91W AND SW TO A WEAK 1016 MB LOW AT 20N94W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW SW TO 18N95W. HIGH PRES RIDGING IS BUILDING SE ACROSS THE AREA ELSEWHERE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY STREAMING NEWD FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE UNDER THESE CLOUDS PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF W OF 89W AND S OF 27N. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW NE WINDS OF 15 KT E OF ABOUT 91W...AND HIGHER NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT W OF 91W. ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING CONFIRMED THESE WINDS...BUT SHOWED A SMALL SWATH OF NW 15-20 KT WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 100 NM SW OF THE WEAK LOW. THE ASCAT ALSO SHOWED A FAINT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE VECTORS. WILL TAKE THIS AS THE LOW THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT FORMING IN THAT GENERAL AREA. IN REFERENCE TO SEAS...THEY ARE PRESENTLY IN THE UPSWING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WHERE BUOY 42055 AT 22N94W HAS 20 KT WINDS...AND NW GULF BUYS ALSO WITH NE 20 KT WINDS. SEAS RANGE 5-7 FT IN THOSE LOCATIONS...AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE WITH SEAS TO 5 FT NEAR AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE LINGERING TROUGH WILL BE A PLAYER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING NE FROM THE E PACIFIC PROVIDE NECESSARY INSTABILITY TO KEEP ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER MUCH OF GULF. THIS ENERGY SHOULD ACT TO SUPPORT THE LOW IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THU NIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE NE WINDS 20-25 KT IN THE SW GULF THROUGH SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT SAT. THE NW-N 20 KT WINDS TO THE SW OF THE LOW MAY POSSIBLY INCREASE TO 25-30 KT THU FOR A SHORT PENDING HOW STRONG THE GRADIENT BECOMES THERE. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE UNCERTAINTY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EXACT PSN AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AFTER THU NIGHT. MOST NWP MODELS HINT AT LOW MOVE NE LATER ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE GFS AND NAM LIKE TO HOLD IT BACK OVER THE WESTERN GULF SAT WHILE SLOWLY MOVING IT NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY DIFFUSING IT DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT KEEP THE E TO W TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. I AM MORE INCLINED THIS TIME TO LEAN WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE LOW ACCELERATING ENE ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA FRI THROUGH SAT ABSORBING THE LOW ALONG THE FLORIDA W CENTRAL COAST LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. IT IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE GFS/NAM SOLN MAY STILL BE A VIABLE ONE. AN EXPANDING NE FETCH DURING LONG TIME DURATION WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 10 FT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BEGINNING LATE SAT AND THROUGH MON WITH THESE SEAS SEEPING SW INTO THE FAR NRN PART OF THE SW ZONE. BY DAYS 4 AND 5 (SUN AND MON)...THE STRONGER HIGH PRES AREA THAT BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF DURING BEHIND THE FRONT STARTS TO SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FAR NW SW N ATLC ZONE WITH RETURN GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE GULF. FORECAST STILL SUBJECT TO POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR MAINLY FOR DAYS 2-3 FT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 31N77W SW TO A WEAK 1016 MB LOW JUST N OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND CONTINUES SW TO ACROSS THE NRN STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND OVER WRN CUBA. A HIGH PRES RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA ALONG 27N E OF 67W. BUOYS THROUGHOUT ARE REPORTING RATHER LIGHT E-SE WINDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE WATERS WHERE A SLIGHTER TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT THERE IS ALLOWING FOR E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT S OF 23N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH ARE N AT ABOUT 15 KT. WINDS W OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS S OF 25N ARE SE-S 10 KT. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 1344 UTC HIS MORNING SUPPORTED THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION...WHILE ANOTHER PASS FROM 1524 UTC CLEARLY SHOWED THE LOW JUST N OF THE GRAND BAHAMAS ISLAND ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH. AS FOR SEAS...RANGES RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE BUOYS AND CURRENTLY OBSERVED ARE IN THE GENERALLY 3-5 FT RANGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE WATERS WHERE HIGHER SEAS OF 5-6 FT ARE NOTED S OF 23N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS ARE LOWER...IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE...BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. THE FORECAST...ALMOST IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY'S...WILL ADVERTISE THE LOW TO LIFT NE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH TROUGH FROM 31N72W TO NW BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN MERGE WITH THE TROUGH THU FROM 31N69W TO 27N74W AND STATIONARY TO WESTERN CUBA. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN EXTEND FROM 30N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND BECOME ORIENTED E TO W ALONG 25N THROUGH SAT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION DURING SAT AND REACH FROM 31N68W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE SAT...AND FROM 28N65W TO EASTERN CUBA BY LATE SUN AND TO JUST SE OF THE ZONE BY MON AFTERNOON. THESE PSNS FOR DAYS 4 AND 5 ARE BASED ON THE ECMWF AND MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS WHICH TENDS TO HOLD ON TO THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR SRN WATERS SUN AND MON WITH THE STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE AREA TO ITS N. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BECOME NW-N AT 20-25 KT SUN...AND MAINLY N-NE 15-20 KT BEHIND IT MON AND WEAKENING TO NE 10-15 KT OVER THE FAR WRN PORTION. SEAS BUILD TO 12 OR 13 FT IN A N SWELL OVER THE FAR NW WATERS ON SUN AND SUBSIDE MON T AROUND 6-9 FT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS IN THE NRN HALF OF THE ZONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES OVER ATLC MAINTAINS STEADY FLOW OF 20-25 KT ELY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT N-NE 5-10 KT RANGE. THE RIDGE TO THE N OVER THE ATLC IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY SUN. A VERY LOOSE GRADIENT AT THAT TIME WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY NE 20 KT WINDS TO BE CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN CUBA SAT AND SUN...THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY STRONG HIGH PRES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN INCREASING NE WINDS OF 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS 6-9 FT VERY CLOSE TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SUN AND SUBSIDING TO 7 FT MON AS WINDS DIMINISH THERE AND VEER TO THE SE AT 10 KT. SEAS OF 8-10 FT IN A LONG FETCH OF NE SWELLS THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 9 FT SUN AND TO 8 FT MON. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE