000 AGXX40 KNHC 071945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST TUE FEB 07 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NAPLES FLORIDA SW TO 23N85W AND SW TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A 1023 MB HIGH CENTER OVER MEXICO AT 23N98W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A BATCH OF STRATUS CLOUDS CONFINED TO THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE GULF FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 82W-84W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY STREAMING NEWD FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO ACROSS MEXICO AND TO OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF SECTIONS. THIS IS AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH JUST SW OF MEXICO. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF. PARTIAL ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING CONFIRMED THESE WINDS...BUT ALSO INDICATED STRONGER NW WINDS OF 15 KT CONFINED TO A SECTION OF THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE SW GULF ZONE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED MAINLY S OF 26N ...AND IN THE NE PART OF THE GULF. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED SINCE LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEAS NOW IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT...EXCEPT HIGHER UP TO 6 FT IN THE SW GULF. THE LINGERING TROUGH WILL BE A PLAYER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS CURRENT WEAK ELONGATED CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT RAMPS UP TO A MORE DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SW GULF ON WED AS HINTED BY MOST OF THE NWP MODELS. THIS WILL OCCUR WHILE AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRES FROM THE PLAINS STATES BEGINS TO BUILD ESE ACROSS THE SRN U.S. AND ACROSS THE GULF. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS A RESULT OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE SW GULF ZONE AND MUCH OF THE NW AND MIDDLE GULF WED THROUGH THU INCREASINGS WINDS BACK TO 20 KT FROM A GENERAL NE DIRECTION. WINDS...HOWEVER... ARE EXPECTED TO POSSIBLY REACH THE 25-30 KT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE SW GULF WED THROUGH THU DUE TO THE TIGHTER INDUCED GRADIENT WITH THE LOW. THE FORECAST WILL CARRY AN ELEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EXACT PSN AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW EXPECTED TO FORM WED. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS A GFS/ECMWF SOLN WITH WINDS AND PSN OF LOW EARLY WED...THEN FOLLOW S SOLN CLOSER TO NOGAPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI WITH LOW LIFTING NNE OVER THE N CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SW GULF WHILE WEAKENING ALONG WITH THE WIND FIELD WILL FORECAST LOW TO BE NEAR 21N95W STARTING WED EVENING...AND TRACKING IT NNE FROM THERE. BY SAT...THE LOW SHOULD HAVE LOST MOST IT NOT ALL ITS IDENTITY OR HAVE TRACKED ENE TO THE EASTERN GULF ALONG A TROUGH OR WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IF FOLLOWING THE NOGAPS SOLN. FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS WITH LOW ENTITY IF IT IS DETERMINED IN SUBSEQUENT THAT IT HANGS AROUND THAT LONG. IN ANY EVENT...BY SUN NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT SHOULD SPREAD THROUGHOUT AS THE STRONG HIGH PRES AREA BUILDS OVER MOST OF THE GULF. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 31N78W SW TO ACROSS S FLORIDA FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO NAPLES. A HIGH PRES RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA ALONG 30N E OF THE TROUGH. BUOYS THROUGHOUT ARE REPORTING RATHER LIGHT E-SE WINDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE WATERS WHERE A SLIGHTER TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT THERE IS ALLOWING FOR E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT S OF 23N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH ARE N AT ABOUT 15 KT. WINDS W OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS S OF 25N ARE SE-S 10 KT. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM JUST PAST 14 UTC THIS MORNING SUPPORTED THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS. AS FOR SEAS...RANGES RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE BUOYS AND CURRENTLY OBSERVED ARE IN THE GENERALLY 3-5 FT RANGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE WATERS WHERE HIGHER SEAS OF 5-6 FT ARE NOTED S OF 23N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS ARE LOWER...IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE...BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. THE FORECAST...BASED ON CONSISTENCY OF THE NWP MODELS...WILL HAVE THE TROUGH DRIFTING E THROUGH WED AT WHICH TIME A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST CATCHES UP WITH IT. THE MERGED FRONT WILL THEN EXTEND ALONG A PSN FROM 31N67W TO VICINITY CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY THU AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH FRI OVER THE NE SECTION WHILE SLOWLY DISSIPATING INTO SAT. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE DISSIPATING FRONT UNTIL SAT AT WHICH TIME A STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPS SWEEPS SEWD THROUGH THE ZONE. THE REINFORCED FRONT WILL THEN PUSH TO ALONG A PSN FROM 28N65W TO SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA BY LATE SUN. A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH INCREASING N-NE WINDS OF ABOUT 20-25 KT. SEAS BUILD TO 12 OR 13 FT IN A N SWELL OVER THE FAR NW WATERS ON SUN. SW WINDS OF 20 KT E OF THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO N OF 25N SUN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES OVER ATLC MAINTAINS STEADY FLOW OF 20-25 KT ELY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. THE RIDGE TO THE N OVER THE ATLC IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY SUN. A VERY LOOSE GRADIENT AT THAT TIME WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY NE 20 KT WINDS TO BE CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. STRONG HIGH PRES FORECAST TO BUILD SE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN SW N ATLC LATE SAT AND SUN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THOSE AREAS WITH POSSIBLE NE 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS 6-9 FT VERY CLOSE TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SUN. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE