000 AGXX40 KNHC 060814 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 AM EST MON FEB 06 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STATIONARY FRONT EXTEND FROM 30N84W TO 25N94W TO 19N96W. SIGNS OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN SURFACE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM SW FLORIDA TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA COMPLICATES FORECAST WITH MODEL GUIDANCE VARYING IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. MOST REASONABLE RESULT WOULD BE TO HAVE LOW PRES DEVELOP NEAR 21N86W AND DRIFT NE AS FRONT STARTS MOVING E AGAIN TUE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE ENHANCES DEEP CONVECTION IN NE QUADRANT OF LOW PRES WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OVER WESTERN CUBA...STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND BAHAMAS. INTENSITY OF LOW PRES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY AS WELL AS ITS TIMING...TRACK BEING THE ONLY COMMON VIRTUE ON MODELS. 06Z SURFACE WINDS SHOW BROAD CIRCULATION BUT PRES REMAIN NEAR 1015 MB IN REGION. OVERALL...ONLY EXTREME SE ZONE FORECASTS ARE AFFECTED BY LOW PRES AS STATIONARY FRONT DOMINATES ALL AREAS TO ITS NW. GALE WARNING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE EARLIER AS WINDS DIMINISHED QUICKLY EARLIER. FRONT DRIFT E TUE AND REACH YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE NIGHT MERGING WITH SURFACE TROUGH AND FORCING LOW PRES NE ACROSS CUBA AND BAHAMAS WED OR THU. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... ABOVE MENTIONED LOW PRES PRESENTS SIMILAR UNCERTAINLY TO REGION W OF BAHAMA BANK. ELSEWHERE...BROAD HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF BASIN CONTINUE MOVING SE RELAXING PRES GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING WINDS. LONG FETCH ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE MAINTAINS STEADY FLOW OF FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WITH ASSOCIATED SWELL BUILDING TO 9-10 FT...SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY LATE MON NIGHT. COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY ENTER NW CORNER OF SW N ATLC MON NIGHT...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS SPEED...JUST SHIFT OF DIRECTIONS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... NW CARIBBEAN UNDER THE SAME ISSUES WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR YUCATAN CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES OVER ATLC MAINTAINS STEADY FLOW OF FRESH ELY BREEZE ACROSS MOST OF BASIN EXCEPT ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THERMAL LOW PRES OVER LAND ENHANCES PRES GRADIENT AND INCREASE WINDS TO A STRONG BREEZE... BUT SHORT OF GALE FORCE. SEAS REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LONG ATLC FETCH WHICH IS EXPECTED GRADUALLY LESSEN. BY WED... RIDGE HAVE MOVED WELL E OF AREA AND LOW PRES JUMPED INTO SW N ATLC...EFFECTIVELY DIMINISHING TRADES TO A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE THROUGH FRI. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES