000 AGXX40 KNHC 051925 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 PM EST SUN FEB 05 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... VERY INTERESTING WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY SE OFF TEXAS AND MEXICAN COASTS...AND DEEP LAYERED VORTEX OVER YUCATAN CHANNEL MAINTAINING CONVECTION AND APPEARING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. COLD FRONT DEPICTED BY 1628 UTC ASCAT PASS WITH INTERESTING NOTCH ALONG FRONT NEAR 25N95W...AND 25-30 KT WINDS STREAMING SWD ALONG MEXICAN COAST. RECENT GLOBAL MODEL RUNS SUGGEST CHANCE FOR BRIEF GALES W OF FRONT AND S OF 25N LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING AS SUCH. FRONT TO MOVE S-SE ACROSS WRN GULF AND SE ACROSS NRN GULF AND ARCH FROM NEAR 29N83W TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MON MORNING...WITH ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUING ALONG SW PORTIONS OF FRONT OVERNIGHT. BUOY 42020 HAS BEEN WAVERING AT 10-11 FT ALL MORNING...SOME 3-4 FT ABOVE WW3 AND ALL OTHER WAVE MODELS. FRONT TO THEN WASH OUT ACROSS S AND SE GULF FROM NEAR 26N82W TO OFFSHORE OF NW YUCATAN COAST. WINDS VEER N TO NE AND DROP OFF THE 15 KT DURING THIS TIME WITH SEAS DROPPING ACCORDINGLY. COASTAL TROUGH TO PERSIST ACROSS W GULF 48-72 HRS WITH LLVL CONVERGENCE YIELDING SCATTERED CONVECTION. AS FOR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DISTURBANCE...SRN STREAM NEGATIVE TILT S/W SHIFTING E-NE ACROSS YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY HAS MOVED OVER LLVL TROFFING IN SAME LOCATION...WITH VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TURNING SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST OFF W TIP OF CUBA. IR AND VIS IMAGERY SUGGEST LLVL TURNING AND CLOUD LINES FROM SW TO NE OFF E COAST OF YUCATAN...WITH AN 1800 UTC SHIP OB OF SE WINDS AT 20 KT DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH APPARENT CYCLONIC TURNING. FURTHER INSPECTION OF VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A MESO LOW NEAR 23N87W...WHERE WE HAVE PUT A LOW ON SFC MAP...AND ANOTHER LOW OR TWO ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING NE THEN E-NE ACROSS THE STRAITS AND TO THE KEYS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE NE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND ACROSS S FL MON AND MON EVENING AND DAMPEN AS IT MOVES INTO MORE LAMINAR FLOW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLC MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME SFC DEVELOPMENT PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND IT APPEARS OBVIOUS THAT A LOW TO MID LEVEL VORTEX WILL MOVE ACROSS S FL MON AND MON NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND CONVECTION SHIFTING NE ACROSS E SEMICIRCLE. WHETHER OR NOT A SFC LOW IS REALIZED REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT AT THIS TIME AM NOT ANTICIPATING MORE THAN 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT IN A SMALL ZONE ACROSS N AND NW QUAD OF ANY LOW ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT. SOME LINGERING TROFFING LIKELY TO PERSIST BEHIND THROUGH WED. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE MAIN CONCERNS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... BROAD HIGH PRES RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE AND ALLOWING PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SRN PORTIONS DECREASING. GULF OF MEXICO FRONT TO MOVE INTO FAR NW PORTIONS MON AND MEANDER AS COMPLEX LOW TO MID LEVEL INTERACTIONS OCCUR. MAIN ISSUE IS LARGE NLY SWELL MOVING THROUGH WATERS TODAY...JUST BEGINNING TO HIT THE N COASTS OF THE CARIB ISLANDS...WITH PEAK ENERGY E OF 65W. SWELL EVENT WILL LAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS AND 36 HOURS ACROSS THE CARIB ISLANDS BEFORE SWELL FADES QUICKLY. RIDGE TO SHIFT QUICKLY E OF THE AREA TUE-WED AND LEAVE LIGHT TO MODERATE SE TRADES ACROSS S PORTIONS...AND WEAK WINDS W OF 75W AS OLD BOUNDARIES MEANDER THERE FOR A FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE BASIN WITH PEAK WINDS BELOW 30 KT NOW. DESPITE THIS...BUOY 42058 UP TO 11 FT THIS MORNING AS WINDS BECAME E-SE AND ALLOWED FOR LONGER FETCH TO HIT THAT LOCATION. ACTIVE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS W AND NW CARIB ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE AND WILL HIT CUBA HARD WITH HEAVEN RAINS NEXT 12 HOURS...OR LONGER. AS RIDGE SHIFTS WELL NE OF AREA TUE AND CYCLONE HAS LIFTED OUT TO NE...GRADIENT WINDS TO DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE BASIN. FRESH TRADEWINDS WILL BROADEN IN AREAL COVERAGE NEXT 48 HOURS AS HIGH SHIFT DUE N OF TROPICAL N ATLC...AND COMBINE WITH NLY SWELL TO MAINTAIN 9-11 FT SEAS...AND 12 FT S OF 14-15N WHERE STRONGEST TRADES WILL BE FOUND. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING GMZ082 S OF 25N W OF FRONT THROUGH 0600 UTC. .SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING