000
AGXX40 KNHC 050743
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 AM EST SUN FEB 05 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT OFF TEXAS COAST EXPECTED TO REACH FROM MOBILE BAY TO 
TUXPAN MEXICO TODAY WITH STRONG N BREEZE SPILLING DOWN ALONG 
MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS W OF FRONT.  FRONT WEAKENS ACROSS NE GULF 
AND SE U.S. THROUGH MON STALLING ACROSS NRN FLORIDA TO WRN BAY 
OF CAMPECHE EARLY MON.  WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N 
COAST OF YUCATAN S-SE INTO NW CARIBBEAN REMAIN SE OF FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES TUE.  MODEL GUIDANCE BACKED OFF DEVELOPMENT 
OF LOW PRES CENTER BUT ABUNDANT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF 
VORTICITY MAINTAINS THIS TROUGH AS A FEATURE TO MONITOR FOR WIND 
AND SEAS THROUGH MON.  GUIDANCE SEE-SAW SOLUTIONS ADD TO THE 
UNCERTAINTY OF OUTLOOK FORECAST.

SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W...
BROAD HIGH PRES RIDGE AT 30N66W HAS STEADY MODERATE E-SE FLOW 
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN LATITUDES OF BASIN.  ONLY S OF 24N DOES 
PRES GRADIENT GETS TIGHT ENOUGH TO PROMPT FRESH TO STRONG E 
BREEZE E OF 75W.  RIDGE DRIFTS E WEAKENING VEERING WINDS AHEAD 
OF WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING NW CORNER MON NIGHT.  FRONT REACHES 
FROM 31N72W TO 25N76W TO N CENTRAL CUBA LATE TUE AND 31N68W TO 
CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE WED.  THERE IS VERY LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND 
SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT BUT LONG FETCH ON SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ADDS LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS S OF 24N AS FAR 
W AS BAHAMAS.

LATE OUTLOOK PERIODS ON WESTERN FRINGES OF BASIN ARE HIGHLY 
UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE WEAVE THEIR SOLUTIONS AROUND MOVEMENT OF 
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NW CARIBBEAN-SE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
DRIFTING NE INTO SW N ATLC LATE WED OR THU. 

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENED AS HIGH PRES OVER ATLC DRIFT E ACROSS W 
ATLC AND GALE FORCE WINDS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH REMAIN STRONG 
OFF OF COAST OF COLOMBIA.  SURFACE TROUGH OVER EXTREME NW 
CARIBBEAN ZONE REMAINS STATIONARY TODAY THEN DRIFT NE INTO GULF 
OF MEXICO AND EXTREME SW N ATLC.  ELSEWHERE IN CARIBBEAN... 
STEADY FLOW OF FRESH TO STRONG E BREEZE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 
LONG FETCH OVER CENTRAL ATLC ADDING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO SEA 
HEIGHT MOSTLY IN TROPICAL ATLC ZONE.  

WARNINGS...

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE. 

.SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC...
.NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA...
.NONE. 
    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES