000 AGXX40 KNHC 041927 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST SAT FEB 04 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT NOW MOVING OFF TEXAS COAST AND EXPECTED TO REACH FROM NEAR MOBILE BAY TO TUXPAN MEXICO SUN MORNING...WITH 25-30 KT OF NLY FLOW SPILLING DOWN ALONG MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS W OF FRONT SUN. FRONT TO WEAKEN ACROSS NE GULF AND SE U.S. SUN THROUGH MON AS IT MOVE SE...STALLING ACROSS NRN FLORIDA TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE MON MORNING. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OFF THE N COAST OF YUCATAN S-SE INTO FAR NW CARIB TO REMAIN SE OF FRONTAL ZONE BEFORE DISSIPATING TUE..AND MODELS HAVE GENIALLY BACKED OFF OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW DEVELOPING FROM THIS TROUGH. WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN UP ACROSS STRAITS AND FAR SE GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... WEAK DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS ATLC TODAY FROM NEAR 23.5N65W TO NW BAHAMAS AND INTO E COAST OF FLORIDA. RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED ZONE OF 20-25 KT WINDS N OF BOUNDARY JUST E OF BAHAMAS...WHERE SEVERAL SHIPS WERE REPORTING WINDS NEAR 30 KT. STRONG FLOW FROM THIS AREA W THROUGH STRAITS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING...WHILE 20-25 KT ELY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TURKS AND CAICOS AND THROUGH SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BEHIND WILL SHIFT SE TO S OF BERMUDA BY SUN AND RELAX GRADIENT WINDS...WHILE NWLY SWELL FROM BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY FADE ACROSS ATLC WATERS SUN AS IT PROPAGATES SE TO THE NE CARIB AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. WW3 SLIGHTLY HIGH THIS MORNING AT 12 UTC WITH WRN EDGE OF SWELL...ONE FT OR LESS. SOMEWHAT COMPLEX FRONTAL INTERACTIONS TO EVOLVE MON-TUE AND GULF OF MEX FRONT STALLS ACROSS N FLORIDA AND NW PORTIONS OF SW N ATLC AND SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPS S INTO N PORTIONS OF WATERS. GFS HAS BEEN FORECASTING A WEAK LOW TO DEVELOP OFF OF GEORGIA-S CAROLINA COASTS ALONG BOUNDARY AND MOVE NE AND INTENSIFY...WHILE EUROPEAN MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT UPPER DYNAMICS INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS FARTHER NE ALONG THE FRONT. ATTM...I HAVE GONE WITH THE EURO MODELS ON THIS FRONTAL EVOLUTION. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... PRES GRADIENT HAS WEAKEN VERY SLIGHTLY TODAY AS HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE ACROSS W ATLC...AND GALES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR SRN WATERS OFF OF COLOMBIA COAST. NEG TILT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH WEAK TROFFING ACROSS FAR NW CARIB AND AMPLE MOISTURE CONVERGING WITH TRADES TO PRODUCE AN ELONGATED CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG 83/84W. TROUGH TO REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH 24 HRS AND THEN DRIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY E. GFS MOVES THIS FEATURE FARTHER E THAN OTHER GLOBAL MODELS BUT AGAIN GOING WITH EURO CONSENSUS. AN OPPORTUNE ALTIMETER PASS JUST AFTER MY 12 UTC SEASTATE ANAL REVEALED 8-12 FT SEAS OFF NE COAST OF JAMAICA...OR DOWNWIND OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND AN EXPANDED AREA TO 9 FT ACROSS THE SW AND W CENTRAL CARIB. ALL GLOBAL WAVE MODELS STILL OVERESTIMATING 8-9 FT PLUS SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT BASED ON ALTIMETER PASS...MODELS MAY NOT BE OVERFORECASTING QUITE AS BAD AS I THROUGH YDA. AT ANY RATE...A SLOW DECREASING TREND IN WIND AND SEAS EXPECTED SUN THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES RIDGE WEAKENS...BUT WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PERSISTING ACROSS THE SRN CARIB IN CLIMO POSITION. NLY SWELL GENERATED FROM DEEP W ATLC LOW TO MOVE THROUGH CARIB PASSAGES STARTING SUN AFTERNOON AND INTO CARIB AND WILL REACH VENEZUELA COAST AT 14-15 SECS. 20 KT TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC CURRENTLY CONFINED TO S OF 14N BUT WILL EXPAND N TO NEAR 20N BY MN-TUE AS ATLC RIDGE REARRANGES. SEAS THERE TO PEAK AT 10-12 FT LATE MON THROUGH TUE AS NWLY SWELL COMBINES WITH NE WIND SWELL. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING