000 AGXX40 KNHC 040744 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 AM EST SAT FEB 04 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER ERN STATES MOVES SE OFF OF NC COAST EARLY TODAY BUT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH SE BREEZE ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF BASIN. COLD FRONT ENTERS NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH FROM 30N87W TO 19N95W EARLY SUN THEN WEAKEN FROM 28N83W TO 25N90W TO 18N93W EARLY MON WHERE IT STALLS WHILE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES IN MON FROM NW CARIBBEAN INTO YUCATAN PENINSULA. PRES GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS W OF FRONT S OF 24N THROUGH LATE MON. MODERATE TO FRESH NE BREEZE REMAIN ACROSS ENTIRE GULF TUE AND WED. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... WEAK DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ACROSS BASIN TODAY FROM 24N65W TO 26N76W. HIGH PRES BEHIND BRINGS STEADY FLOW OF E TO SE MODERATE BREEZE DIMINISHING N OF 27N SUN THROUGH WED. NEVERTHELESS THE VERY LONG FETCH ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE PRODUCES LARGE E-NE SWELLS TO 14 FT E OF BAHAMAS THROUGH MON. LOW PRES CENTER OVER CAROLINAS SHIFT NE DRAGGING WEAK SECOND COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS NW CORNER OF BASIN MON THEN REACH FROM 31N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY TUE AND MOVE OUT OF BASIN WED. MOST STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST N OF 31N THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WITH STRONG HIGH PRES N OF AREA STEADY FLOW OF FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WITH VERY LONG FETCH CROSS CARIBBEAN THROUGH ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...ALBEIT DIMINISHING SLIGHT BY THE END. GALE FORCE WINDS TURNING ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY BUT REMAIN NEAR GALE FORCE THROUGH MON WHEN DEVELOPING TROUGH NEAR YUCATAN EFFECTIVELY DECREASES PRES GRADIENT...HENCE THE WIND. HOWEVER LONG FETCH OF ELY WINDS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THROUGH BASIN FROM 70W TO 80W. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN UNCERTAIN OF EFFECT OF AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH OVER EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN AND IS SUSPECTED TO BE GENERATING HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS THAN REALLY EXPECTED. FORECAST MAY TEMPER WIND AND SEAS BASED ON RELIABLE OBSERVED VALUES. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA... .AMZ084...GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES