000 AGXX40 KNHC 031914 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EST FRI FEB 03 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER ERN STATES FORECAST TO SHIFT SE OFF OF NC COAST BY SAT MORNING AND MAINTAIN MODERATE E TO SE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF GULF. COLD FRONT OVER W TEXAS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF TEXAS COAST SAT AFTERNOON AND REACH FROM NEAR MOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI TO TAMPICO MEXICO SUN MORNING AND WEAKEN AS UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF FROM PREVIOUS GALE FORCE WIND FORECAST FOR SW GULF BEHIND FRONT AND WE ARE NOW FORECASTING NLY WINDS 25-30 KT RATHER THAN GALE. PATCHY SEA FOG HAS IMPROVED ACROSS THE NW GULF IN THE 15-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW...BUT HAS BEEN GRADUALLY BURNING OFF WITH VSBYS IMPROVING. WEAKENED FRONT TO EXTEND FROM NRN FLORIDA TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE AND STALL MON AS LLVL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS FAR NW CARIB INTERACTS WITH UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING E ACROSS W GULF AND OVER UPPER RIDGE. ATTM AM NOT FORECASTING ANY GRADIENT WINDS NEAR THE TROUGH...AND ONLY N OF THE FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH MON. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... COLD FRONT WEAKENING AS IT SINKS S-SE ACROSS THE AREA... CURRENTLY FROM NEAR 31N59W TO THE FAR NW BAHAMAS AND NEAR BOCA RATON. HIGH PRES BEHIND FRONT INCREASING PRES GRADIENT ON BOTH SIDES OF BOUNDARY W OF 70W...AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 THROUGH THE STRAITS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND W OF ENTIRE BAHAMA CHAIN TONIGHT. GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH AND DEEP LOW ACROSS THE NW ATLC TO PRODUCE STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS WRN SEMI CIRCLE AND YIELD A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND AND ENTER THE NE CARIB PASSAGES SUN. MEANWHILE...FRONT TO SINK TO 24-25N BY SAT AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO WASH OUT...WITH SHEARLINE LINGERING THROUGH NW BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI. WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL VEER ELY SAT AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS BECOMING DOMINATED BY NLY SWELL...WITH SEAS 8 FT PLUS OF 70W SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN. A SECOND FRONT TO SINK S INTO N PORTIONS OF THE AREA MON. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... 1034 MB HIGH REMAINS N OF AREA...ACROSS ERN U.S. AND IS ACTING TO MAINTAIN TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WITH STRONG TRADES ACROSS MOST OF CARIBBEAN E OF 85W AND SOUTHERN CORRIDOR OF TROPICAL ATLC. GALES ARE ASSUMED TO BE PERSISTING OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 73W-78W...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING. INTERROGATION OF OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA THIS MORNING FOR 12Z SEA STATE ANAL SHOWED WW3 WITH VERY HIGH BIAS ACROSS THIS AREA OF FRESH WINDS IN CENTRAL AND SW CARIB...AND HAD TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE AREA OF 9+ FT SEAS...WITH MAX ESTIMATED AT 14FT. WW3 TYPICALLY HAS A HIGH BIAS ACROSS THE W CENTRAL AND NW CARIB WHERE LLVL WIND FLOW IS APPARENTLY MORE DIFFLUENT THAT GFS THINKS...THUS LIMITING WAVE GROWTH. GRADIENT TO RELAX SLOWLY AND SLIGHTLY NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SE OFF THE NC COAST...WITH GALES ENDING AFTER 12S SAT. STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIB THROUGH SUN MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20-25...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC DUE TO NARROW RIDGE DEVELOPING ALONG 29N. MODELS STILL SUGGESTING INTERACTION OF WEAK LLVL TROUGH ACROSS FAR NW CARIB INTERACTING WITH UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING E ACROSS YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUN-MON TO YIELD ELONGATED TROUGH OR LOW ALONG ABOUT 86W. VARYING SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY BY GLOBAL MODELS AS TROUGH/LOW LINGERS ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR STALLED FRONTAL ZONE IN SE GULF...AND AM PRESENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF WITH LINGERING TROUGH GRADUALLY MERGING WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA WED-THU. LARGE NLY SWELL FROM W ATLC STORM SYSTEM TO REACH NE CARIB ISLANDS AND PASSAGE SUN AND BUILD SUN NIGHT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA... .AMZ084...GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING