000 AGXX40 KNHC 021139 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 440 AM EST THU FEB 02 2012 UPDATED GULF OF MEXICO TO INCLUDE FORECAST OF FOG MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...UPDATED HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 28N E OF ABOUT 91W...WHILE A COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS ABUNDANT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SPREADING NEWD OVER MUCH TO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED WITH THE MOISTURE PRIMARILY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF. LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM PLATFORMS ARE REVEALING AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER MUCH OF THE NW GULF...AND IN THE NW PART OF THE MIDDLE GULF. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE LIFTING N OVER THE SRN PART OF THE MIDDLE GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING W ARE NOTED THERE...AND ALSO IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE GULF. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT NOTED THE PAST FEW DAYS OVER THE SE PORTION HAS RELAXED SINCE YESTERDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WITH WINDS THERE NOW IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. ELSEWHERE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REVEALING GENERALLY E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT SE-S WINDS OF 10 KT IN THE NW GULF ZONE. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 0322 UTC LAST NIGHT CONFIRMED THESE WINDS. LATEST SEASTATE ANALYSIS AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE S OF 26N E OF 90W. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 2-3 FT N OF 27N E OF 85W. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE GULF TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRES FROM THE U.S. SEABOARD BEGINS TO BUILD SWD OVER THE EASTERN AND MIDDLE GULF TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE E THROUGH THE NRN GULF TONIGHT AND BECOME DIFFUSE FRI. THE HIGH PRES AREA WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA ON SAT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE GULF AND LOW PRES OVER TEXAS AND THE PLAINS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF FRI AND SAT WITH ELY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS ON SUN AND MON WITH ELY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THOSE SECTIONS OF THE GULF. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF SAT AFTERNOON...TIMING BASED ON THE 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH A PSN FROM THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO THE WESTERN N BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE SUN OR EARLY MON AS IT SLOWS DOWN MON. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE FRONT ONCE IT ENTERS THE GULF...SO IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT PROGRESSION TO THE EASTERN GULF MAY HAVE TO BE EVEN DELAYED FURTHER IN FUTURE FORECASTS. SE-S WINDS OF 10-15 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE NW GULF WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10- KT SAT. WINDS WILL SHIFT SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT TO N-NE AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEHIND IT ON SAT. A TIGHT SQUEEZE OF THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD LEAD TO MUCH HIGHER WINDS FUNNELING SWD THERE...PERHAPS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS ON SUN AND MON AS HINTED BY THE GFS MODEL. WINDS DIMINISH TO N AT 15-20 KT IN THE NW GULF MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. EXPECT PATCHES OF SEA FOG TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE NW GULF AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE LESS IN AREAL COVERAGE. VISIBILITIES MAY BE SHARPLY REDUCED IN THE FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE PRELIMINARY 6 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 28N. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0142 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT CONFINED TO THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA...AND ALSO THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE SAME ASCAT PASS ALSO NOTED LIGHTER NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE S OF 27N...SE-S WINDS OF 10 KT N OF 27N W OF 75W...AND NE-E 5-10 KT ELSEWHERE. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW MAX SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-9 FT IN A NE SWELL S OF 26N E OF 70W. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF 6-8 FT BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AND 2-3 FT IN THE FAR NW PORTION. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOME THROUGH TONIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE U.S. SEABOARD. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP SEWD ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE ZONE INTO FRI. A LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE ZONE THROUGH SAT AS THE FRONT MOVES E OF 65W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AGAIN SETS UP OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN E MAINLY 20 KT WINDS S OF 27N WITH SOME RANGES OF 20-25 KT OVER THE WATERS S OF ABOUT 24N. WINDS OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA SHIFT TO N AT 20 KT FRI...AND TO NE-E 20 KT ELSEWHERE OVER THE FAR NRN WATERS. WINDS THEN DIMINISH TO NE-E 10-15 KT SAT...AND BECOME SW 10-15 KT OVER THOSE WATERS SUN. BY MON ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FAR NRN WATERS E OF ABOUT 75W WITH INCREASING WINDS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND IT. NW SWELLS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT OVER MOST OF THE NE PORTION LATE FRI INTO SAT...BUT QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO 6 FT LATER ON SAT AND SUN AS THE STRONG HIGH PRES AREA WEAKENS. SEAS BUILD AGAIN THERE MON WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE NRN WATERS. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT PRESENT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BE MORE CONFINED MORE TO THE SRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ZONE THROUGH MON...AND NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS WILL BE TO 8 FT THROUGH MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SEWD OVER THE WRN ATLC IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADES TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF THOSE SECTIONS. THE LATEST SURFACE PRES ANALYSIS VALID 6 UTC ...SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY...REVEALED A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN SECTIONS OF SW ZONE AND SW PART OF THE EASTERN ZONE. ENHANCED SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT VERY FAST LOW CLOUD MOTION FROM NE TO SW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ZONE. THE GALE WARNING FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE SW ZONE REMAINED IN EFFECT ...AND BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IT WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS THAT WINDS MAY AGAIN INCREASE TO GALE FORCE STRENGTH ON SUN BUT IN BRIEF SPURTS AS ATLC HIGH PRES IS REINFORCED BY YET ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRES THAT PRESSES S TOWARDS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE NW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS SEAS UP TO 14 FT IN THE GALE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY MON WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY NE-E 20-30 KT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. BOTH BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH ASCAT DATA FROM LAST NIGHT REVEALED NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SECTION OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 81W WHERE LIGHTER NE-E WINDS WERE ..AND ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED. THESE WINDS WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVERALL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW PART OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE LIGHT E WINDS OF 10-15 KT WILL BE IN PLACE. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS OF 8-10 FT WITH THESE WINDS...WITH THE HIGHEST OF THE SEAS S OF 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOWED NE 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THESE WINDS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SAT...THEN SHOULD DIMINISH ON SUN. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA... .AMZ084...GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE