000 AGXX40 KNHC 011910 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST WED FEB 1 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... E-SE RETURN FLOW PREVAILS OVER MOST OF THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 32N SHIFTS EASTWARD. FRESH E WINDS CONTINUE S OF 25N E OF 89W INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. COASTAL RADARS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS IN NW GULF AS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS N AHEAD OF A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT AND THU AS HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER E. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT IN THE W GULF AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THU NIGHT. AREA OF MODERATE HIGH PRES BUILDING SWD OVER FLORIDA AND LOW PRES INTENSIFYING OVER THE LOWER PLAINS WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THE MID/EASTERN GULF FRI AND SAT WITH EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH NW GULF SAT ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SE-S AHEAD OF IT TO N-NE AT 20-25 KT BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM LOUISIANA TO TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER SAT...FROM ALABAMA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO SUN AND FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO BAY OF CAMPECHE MON. GFS MODEL SHOWS WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE LATE SUN THROUGH MON S OF 25N W OF 95W. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W AND TROPICAL N ATLC... MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY...ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF THE AREA ALONG 32N. STRONGER TRADE WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ARE FOUND S OF 25N W OF 70W IN FLORIDA STRAITS. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL SHIFT E TONIGHT AND THU AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF N FLORIDA COAST THU AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK S OF 30N AS IT SLIDES EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF SW N ATLC ZONE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE BEHIND THE FRONT FRI AND SAT AS THE FRONT MOVES E...BRINGING AREA OF LARGE NW SWELL TO CENTRAL ATLC...BRUSHING PAST FAR NE PORTION OF SW N ATLC SAT AND SUN NE PORTION OF TROPICAL N ATLC SUN AND MON. THE .SCENARIO REPEATS SUN NIGHT AND MON AS A SECOND COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST ALONG NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF SW N ATLC...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONGER N-NW WINDS N OF 28N BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 32N AND LOW PRES ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING STRONG E-NE TRADE WINDS WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE CONTINUING FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST A MAJORITY OF THE TIME IN THIS AREA THROUGH SAT AS ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS S TOWARD NRN PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN. REST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SEE 20-25 KT ENE WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8-12 FT MAINLY BETWEEN 68W AND 82W. WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS TO 14-15 FT IN THE GALE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN ATLANTIC PASSAGES THROUGH FRI. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA... .AMZ084...GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL