000 AGXX40 KNHC 010744 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST WED FEB 01 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... PRELIMINARY SURFACE PRES ANALYSIS FROM 06 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALS A HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG THE FAR NRN GULF COAST ALONG 30N...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF. SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS ABUNDANT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A FAR ERN PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH SPREADING NEWD TO ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF...AND EASTWARD TO OVER THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF. NWS RADAR DISPLAYS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MOVING NE ARE OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF...WHILE SCATTERED PATCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING E OVER THE NRN PART OF THE MIDDLE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING W ARE OVER THE FAR SE WATERS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES SE OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR SE PART OF THE ERN GULF FOR THE TIME BEING WHERE E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE EVIDENT. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REVEALING GENERALLY E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT SE-S WINDS OF 10 KT IN THE NW GULF ZONE. LATEST SEASTATE ANALYSIS AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE S OF 26N E OF 90W. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 2-3 FT N OF 27N E OF 85W. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO OFFSHORE THE SE U.S. THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN THE SE PART TO WEAKEN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO E AT 10-15 KT...EXCEPT REMAIN HIGHER (15-20 KT) IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS THERE WILL LOWER SLIGHTER THU AND THU NIGHT. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH ENERGY UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH BEING EJECTED NEW ACROSS THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT. AT THE SAME...STRONG HIGH PRES FROM THE U.S. SEABOARD WILL BUILD SWD OVER THE EASTERN AND MIDDLE GULF THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE E THROUGH NRN GULF THROUGH THU EVENING AND DAMPEN. THE HIGH PRES AREA WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA ON SAT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE GULF AND LOW PRES OVER TEXAS AND THE PLAINS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF FRI AND SAT WITH ELY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. THE GRADIENT SLACKENS ON SUN WITH ELY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THOSE SECTIONS OF THE GULF. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY SUN PER 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SE-S AHEAD OF IT TO N-NE AT 20-25 KT BEHIND IT. THE FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY REACH A PSN FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO THE WESTERN N BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUN. A TIGHT SQUEEZE OF THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD LEAD TO MUCH HIGHER WINDS FUNNELING SWD THERE...PERHAPS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS ON SUN PER GFS GUIDANCE. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE PRELIMINARY 6 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 28N65W SW TO JUST E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDS SW INTO THE AREA FROM 31N78W SW TO ACROSS NRN FLORIDA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0200 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 KT CONFINED TO THE SW PART OF THE AREA S OF 24N W OF THE BAHAMAS ...AND ALSO THE FAR SE WATERS. THE SAME PASS ALSO NOTED LIGHTER WINDS FROM NE-E AT 10-15 KT NW OF THE FRONT...AND SE WINDS OF 10 KT W OF 77W. FOR SEAS...BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW MAX SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 7-9 FT IN A NE SWELL OVER THE FAR SE WATERS. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF 6-8 FT BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AND 2-3 FT IN THE FAR NW PORTION. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE NE PORTION THROUGH THU AS THE STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX REDUCING THE E WINDS TO 15-20 KT S OF 27N...AND TO N-E 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE WITH WINDS VEERING TO SE N OF 27N W OF 75W. DEEPENING LOW PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE U.S. SEABOARD LATE THU...WILL PULL A COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE ZONE INTO FRI. A LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE ZONE THROUGH SAT AS THE FRONT MOVES E OF 65W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AGAIN SETS UP OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN E MAINLY 20 KT WINDS S OF 27N WITH SOME RANGES OF 20-25 KT OVER THE WATERS S OF ABOUT 24N. WINDS OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA SHIFT TO N AT 20-25 KT FRI...THEN SHIFT TO N-NE SAT AND DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT. NW SWELLS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT OVER MOST OF THE NE PORTION LATE FRI INTO SAT...BUT QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO 6 FT LATER ON SAT AND SUN AS THE STRONG HIGH PRES AREA WEAKENS. SW WINDS OF 20 KT DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NRN WATERS SUN AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE ERN U.S. AND INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE ZONE. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT PRESENT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN BE MORE CONFINED MORE TO THE SRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ZONE THROUGH SUN...AND NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH...UP TO POSSIBLY 10 FT...IN THIS ZONE THROUGH TODAY...THEN SHOULD LOWER TO 8 FT THU THROUGH SAT AS STRONG NE FETCH DIMINISHES. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SEWD OVER THE WRN ATLC IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADES TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF THOSE SECTIONS. THE LATEST SURFACE PRES ANALYSIS VALID 6 UTC REVEALED A TIGHT ISOBARIC SPACING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN SECTIONS OF SW ZONE AND SW PART OF THE EASTERN ZONE. ENHANCED SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT VERY FAST LOW CLOUD MOTION FROM NE TO SW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ZONE. THE GALE WARNING FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE SW ZONE REMAINED IN EFFECT ...AND BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IT WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS THAT WINDS MAY AGAIN INCREASE TO GALE FORCE STRENGTH ON SUN AS ATLC HIGH PRES IS REINFORCED BY YET ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRES THAT PRESSES S TOWARDS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE NW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS SEAS UP TO 14 FT IN THE GALE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH ASCAT DATA FROM LAST NIGHT REVEALED NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SECTION OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 81W WHERE LIGHTER NE-E WINDS WERE ..AND ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED. THESE WINDS WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVERALL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW PART OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE LIGHT E WINDS OF 10-15 KT WILL BE IN PLACE. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS OF 8-10 FT WITH THESE WINDS...WITH THE HIGHEST OF THE SEAS S OF 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOWED NE 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHIP "C6VG7" SAILING SW THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS REPORTING NE WINDS OF 25 KT WHICH MATCHES THE ASCAT PASS WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SAT...THEN SHOULD DIMINISH ON SUN. WARNINGS...UPDATED GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA... .AMZ084...GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE