000 AGXX40 KNHC 311037 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 535 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2012 UPDATED CARIBBEAN SECTION TO INCLUDE GALE WARNING FOR SW ZONE MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SURFACE PRES ANALYSIS FROM LATE LAST NIGHT REVEALED HIGH PRES RIDGING NOW DOMINATING THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED ROUGHLY ALONG 30N. SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS ABUNDANT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL E PACIFIC SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF...AND TO OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF. NWS RADAR DISPLAYS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MOVING N AND NE OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF...WHILE SCATTERED PATCHES OF RAIN ARE MOVING E OVER THE NRN PART OF THE MIDDLE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING W ARE OVER THE FAR SE WATERS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES SE OF THE AREA IS CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF. AS A RESULT...BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REVEALING NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS S OF ABOUT 25N AND E OF 90W. SE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE IN THE WRN GULF FROM 21N-27N W OF 90W. LATEST SEASTATE ANALYSIS AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE S OF 26N E OF 90W...AND ALSO FROM 21N-26N W OF 90W. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT ELSEWHERE S OF 27N...AND 3-5 FT N OF 27N WITH LOWER SEAS OF 2-4 FT IN THE FAR NW WATERS. THE RIDGE IS STILL FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD TO OFFSHORE THE SE U.S. THROUGH WED NIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON WED...THEN TO GENERALLY E AT 10-15 KT THU AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE GULF ZONE. SEAS LOWER TO THE 2-4 FT RANGE ON THU. THE TROUGH DAMPENS OUT ON FRI AS ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE GULF...AND WHILE AT THE SAME TIME LOW PRES INTENSIFIES OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST AND NRN TEXAS REGIONS. THE SQUEEZE PLAY IN BETWEEN BOTH FEATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASING THE GRADIENT OVER THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF FRI AND SAT WITH ELY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT FRI AND SAT. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST ENTER THE NW GULF PERHAPS SOMETIME FRI NIGHT...COULD BE LATE THAT NIGHT PER GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE ECMWF GUIDANCE STILL REMAINS A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS TAKING FRONT TO THE TEXAS COAST EARLY FRI. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SE-S AHEAD OF IT TO N AT AROUND 20 KT OR POSSIBLY BRIEFLY 20-25 KT BEHIND IT. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH FROM SW LOUISIANA TO FAR S TEXAS/NE MEXICO SAT. THIS IS JUST A PRELIMINARY ESTIMATION OF FORECAST PSN...AND COULD VERY WELL CHANGE BASED ON FUTURE MODEL ANALYSIS. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE PRELIMINARY 6 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 29N65W SW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. STRONG HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH N OF THE ZONE AT 32N77W IS BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0224 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 KT OVER AND NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS...AND EASTERN PART OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE PASS ALSO NOTED LIGHTER WINDS OF N-NE 10-15 KT NW OF THE FRONT E OF 75W. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE MOSTLY E 10-15 KT...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA AND WINDWARD PASSAGE AS WELL WHERE SPEEDS OF 20-25 KT ARE NOTED BY THE ASCAT PASS...AND ALSO BY A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR SEAS...BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW MAX SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT CONFINED TO THE FAR SE WATERS. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT WITH HIGHER VALUES...IN THE RANGE OF 5-7 FT IN AN E SWELL IN THE FAR SE WATERS AND 1-3 FT IN THE FAR SW PORTION BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA. THE 1030 MB HIGH WILL MOVE NE THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE LIFTING N TO NEAR 30N AS THE STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX REDUCING THE E WINDS TO 15-20 KT S OF 27N...AND TO N-E 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE WITH WINDS VEERING TO SE N OF 27N W OF 75W. DEEPENING LOW PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE U.S. SEABOARD LATE THU...WILL PULL A COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE ZONE INTO FRI. A LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE ZONE THROUGH SAT AS THE FRONT MOVES E OF 65W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AGAIN SETS UP OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN E MAINLY 20 KT WINDS S OF 27N WITH SOME RANGES OF 20-25 KT OVER THE WATERS S OF ABOUT 24N WINDS OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA SHIFT TO N AT 20-25 KT FRI...THEN SHIFT TO N-NE SAT AND DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT. LARGE NW SWELLS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 10 FT OVER MOST OF THE NE PORTION ON SAT. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT PRESENT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WED...THEN BE MORE CONFINED MORE TO THE SRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ZONE THROUGH SAT AS NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS. SEAS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH...UP TO POSSIBLY 10 FT...IN THIS ZONE THROUGH WED THEN SHOULD LOWER TO 8 FT THU THROUGH SAT AS STRONG NE FETCH DIMINISHES. CARIBBEAN SEA...UPDATED THE REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ARE JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND ARE LIFTING N. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SEWD OVER THE WRN ATLC IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADES TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF THOSE SECTIONS. SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ZONE (AMZ084) HAVE REPORTED SUSTAINED GALE FORCE 35 KT WINDS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST SURFACE PRES ANALYSIS VALID 6 UTC REVEALED A TIGHT ISOBARIC SPACING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN SECTIONS OF SW ZONE AND SW PART OF THE EASTERN ZONE AS WELL WITH THE 1016 MB AND 1012 MB ISOBAR ABOUT 200 NMI APART. ALSO ENHANCED SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY FAST LOW CLOUD MOTION FROM NE TO SW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ZONE. BASED ON THIS HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT A GALE WARNING FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE SW ZONE. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 00 UTC LAST NIGHT SUGGESTS THAT THESE WIND CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL WED NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS THAT WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE IN THE SAME AREA LATE THU AND INTO POSSIBLY SAT AS ATLC HIGH PRES IS REINFORCED BY YET ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRES THAT PRESSES S TOWARDS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE NW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS SEAS UP 13 FT IN THE GALE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH ASCAT AND OSCAT FROM LATE LAST NIGHT REVEALED NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SECTION OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 81W WHERE LIGHTER NE-E WINDS CONSISTING OF SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT WERE NOTED. THESE WINDS WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVERALL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW PART OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE LIGHT E WINDS OF 10-15 KT WILL BE IN PLACE. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS OF 8-10 FT WITH THESE WINDS...WITH THE HIGHEST OF THE SEAS S OF 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO HINTED AT NE 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THESE WINDS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH SOME THU BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 20-25 KT FRI AND SAT. WARNINGS...UPDATED GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA... .AMZ084...GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE