000 AGXX40 KNHC 300735 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST MON JAN 30 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE OLD STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS OVER THE FAR SE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN YUCATAN CHANNEL IS CURRENTLY DISSIPATING WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS CONFINED TO S OF 25N E OF 90W. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE IS SPREADING NE FROM THE E PACIFIC TO ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF PORTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE W OF 92W. THE MAIN FEATURE IMPACTING THE GULF IS STRONG HIGH PRES OF 1030 MB CENTERED OVER EASTERN ALABAMA. ASSOCIATED RIDGING OVER THE GULF IS OVER THE AREA...CREATING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW NE 20-25 KT WINDS S OF ABOUT 25N AND E OF 90W. WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ARE NE-E 15-20 KT EXCEPT E-SE 10-15 KT N OF 25N W OF 90W...AND NE-E 15-20 KT S OF 25N W OF 90W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW 15-20 KT S OF 21N W OF 95W. LATEST SEASTATE ANALYSIS AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT S OF 25N E OF 90W...AND 5-7 FT ELSEWHERE S OF 27N...AND 3-5 FT N OF 27N WITH LOWER SEAS OF 2-4 FT IN THE FAR NW WATERS. THE 1030 MB HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE E TO OFFSHORE THE SE U.S. BY TONIGHT...BUT THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF KEEPING THE NE-E 20-25 KT THERE. WITH THE HIGH PULLING FURTHER NE OUT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO WED...THE TIGHT GRIP ON THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY LESSEN. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THOSE PORTIONS OF THE GULF TO 15-20 KT WHILE VEERING AROUND TO THE E-SE ON WED AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS IN THE FAR WEST GULF AND LIFTS NEWD. WINDS BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT AND FROM THE SE-SE OVER THE REST OF THE GULF WED INTO THU WITH SEAS RATHER LOW IN THE 2-3 FT. RANGE. IN THE SW GULF ZONE WINDS WILL BE MORE E-SE IN DIRECTION E OF 95W. BY THU LIGHT NE-E ARE FORECAST OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF WITH SEAS REMAINING ABOUT 2-3 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST REGION OF THE U.S. AND TOWARDS THE NW GULF PERHAPS BY LATE FRI USING THE MAJORITY OF MODELS FOR THIS TIMING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SE-S AHEAD OF IT TO N BEHIND IT WITH INCREASING IN SPEEDS. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W AND TROPICAL N ATLC...THE PRELIMINARY 6 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N70W SW TO ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA ALONG 27N E OF 67W. ASCAT AND WSAT DATA SHOW SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT N OF 27N E OF OF THE FRONT...AND NW-N WINDS OF 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 27N...AND N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT S OF 27N. ASCAT DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS REVEAL HIGHER WINDS FROM THE E IN A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IN THE SE PORTION. WINDS THERE ARE NE-E 15-20 KT. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE MOSTLY E 10-15 KT...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA WHERE SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED AT TIMES AND BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHERE WINDS ARE SE-S AT 10-15 KT. NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WERE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE 0242 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT. FOR SEAS...BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW MAX SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT CONFINED TO THE FAR SE WATERS. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT WITH HIGHER VALUES...IN THE RANGE OF 5-7 FT IN AN E SWELL IN THE FAR SE WATERS AND 1-3 FT IN THE FAR SW PORTION BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO E OF THE ZONE THIS MORNING AS A 1030 MB CONTINENTAL HIGH OVER EASTERN ALABAMA MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE SE U.S. WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGING PRESSING ESE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL DRIVE THE PORTION OF THE FRONT N OF THE BAHAMAS EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT TO JUST E OF THE ZONE BY EARLY TONIGHT AND SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHERE IT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY AND RATHER DIFFUSE FROM THERE TO VICINITY OF WRN CUBA MON EVENING AS A STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1030 MB HIGH BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF THE ZONE. A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THEN TAKES HOLD OVER THE AREA TILL ABOUT WED AFTERNOON RESULTING IN E MAINLY 20 KT WINDS WITH SOME RANGES OF 20-25 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN WATERS S OF ABOUT 24N. AS THE PARENT 1030 MB HIGH CENTER THEN SHIFTS NE TO WELL NE OF THE AREA INTO THE FAR CENTRAL ATLC WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL RESPOND BY REDUCING THE E WINDS TO AROUND THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR SRN WATERS INTO FRI. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD LATE WED AND THU...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE RELATED WIND SHIFT FROM SW AHEAD OF IT TO NNE BEHIND IT WILL BE RATHER LIGHT IN SPEEDS. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT PRESENT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN BE MORE CONFINED TO THE NRN PART OF THE ZONE WED AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THU OVER MOST OF THE ZONE WITH THE ATLC HIGH N OF THE AREA PULLING OFF TO THE NE...THEREFORE...RELAXING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE ZONE. SEAS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH...UP TO POSSIBLY 11 FT...IN THIS ZONE THROUGH WED THEN SHOULD LOWER TO 8 FT THU AND FRI AS AS STRONG NE FETCH DIMINISHES. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADES TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF THOSE SECTIONS. NE-E WINDS OF 25-30 KT IN THE SW ZONE VERY NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST ARE CONTINUING. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI WITH A POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF GUSTS TO GALE FORCE PER GFS MODEL WIND GUIDANCE. AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES...HIGH AREA BUILDING FROM W TO E TO THE N OF THE AREA WILL ALSO BUILD S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN INCREASING NE-E WINDS THERE TO 20 KT INTO AT LEAST EARLY ON THU BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT THROUGH FRI. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS UP TO 12 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ZONE THROUGH TUE...THEN TO 13 FT WED AND TO 14 FT THU BEFORE LOWERING SOME ON FRI. ELSEWHERE...FRESH E-NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE