000 AGXX40 KNHC 290732 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA SW TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW NE 20 KT WINDS THROUGHOUT. LATEST SEASTATE ANALYSIS AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE S OF 27N...AND AND 2-4 FT N OF 27N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SE PART ALONG THE FRONT. THE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING BUILDING E SEWD ACROSS THE GULF. THE HIGH PARENT HIGH CENTER OF 1031 MB IS OVER NE TEXAS. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE E THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS N-NE 20 KT WINDS TO TAKE HOLD OVER MOST OF THE GULF S OF ABOUT 28N UNDER A TIGHT SQUEEZE IN THE PRES GRADIENT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN INTO AT LEAST EARLY WED BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME WITH THE FURTHER EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF THE HIGH INTO THE ATLC OFF THE THE SE U.S. COAST. BY WED...RETURN SE-S FLOW SETS UP OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD THE MIDWEST REGION OF THE U.S. WINDS STAY E AT 20 KT ON THE SE PORTION AS PERSISTENT ATLC E FETCH CONTINUES UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS UP TO 9 FT BEGINNING TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE GULF S OF 26N...AND IN THE EASTERN GULF S OF 26N MON. SEAS REMAIN AT 8-9 FT IN THOSE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 5 OR 6 FT WED AND THU. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W AND TROPICAL N ATLC...THE PRELIMINARY 6 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N75W SW TO S FLORIDA...AND A RIDGE ALONG 27N E OF ABOUT 75W. ASCAT AND WSAT DATA SHOW SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT N OF 27N E OF OF THE FRONT...AND NW-N WINDS OF 10 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. ASCAT DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS REVEAL HIGHER WINDS FROM THE E IN A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IN THE SE PORTION WITH NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE E-SE AT 10-15 KT ...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS HISPANIOLA WHERE SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED AT TIMES AND BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHERE WINDS ARE SE-S AT 10-15 KT. AS FOR SEAS...BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW MAX SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT IN THE FAR NE PORTION. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT WITH HIGHER VALUES...IN THE RANGE OF 5-7 FT IN AN E SWELL IN THE FAR SE WATERS AND 1-3 FT IN THE FAR SW PORTION BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO E OF THE ZONE EARLY MON AS A 1030 MB CONTINENTAL HIGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE SE U.S. WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGING PRESSING ESE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL DRIVE THE PORTION OF THE FRONT N OF THE BAHAMAS EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT TO A PSN FROM NEAR 31N69W SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHERE IT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY AND RATHER DIFFUSE FROM THERE TO VICINITY OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WRN CUBA MON EVENING. THE COLD FRONT PORTION THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA EARLY TUE AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF THE ZONE. A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THEN TAKES HOLD OVER THE AREA TILL ABOUT WED AFTERNOON RESULTING IN E MAINLY 20 KT WINDS WITH SOME RANGES OF 20-25 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN WATERS S OF ABOUT 24N. AS THE PARENT 1030 HIGH CENTER THEN SHIFTS NE TO WELL NE OF THE AREA INTO THE FAR CENTRAL ATLC WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ...THE GRADIENT WILL RESPOND BY REDUCING THE E WINDS TO AROUND THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR SRN WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD LATE WED AND THU...BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON WINDS AND SEAS IN THE NRN PORTION BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT PRESENT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN BE MORE CONFINED TO THE NRN PART OF THE ZONE WED AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THU WITH THE ATLC HIGH N OF THE AREA PULLING OFF TO THE NE AND ALLOWING FOR ITS GRASP ON THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE TO RELAX. SEAS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH...UP TO POSSIBLY 11 FT...IN THIS ZONE THROUGH WED THEN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE ZONE THU AS AS STRONG NE FETCH DIMINISHES. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA SW TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE FORMED AGAIN OVER THE NRN PART OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND ARE MOVING TO THE NE. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADES TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF THOSE SECTIONS. NE-E WINDS OF 25-30 KT IN THE SW ZONE VERY NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST ARE CONTINUING. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THU WITH A POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF GUSTS TO GALE FORCE PER GFS MODEL WIND GUIDANCE. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT THROUGH MON MORNING AS THE HIGH AREA THAT BUILDS FROM W TO E TO THE N OF THE AREA ALSO BUILDS S INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN INCREASING NE-E WINDS THERE TO 20 KT INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS UP TO 11 OR 12 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE...AND TO POSSIBLY 14 FT WED AND THU OR SOONER. ELSEWHERE...FRESH E-NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE