000 AGXX40 KNHC 280730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 MB HIGH CENTER OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF AT 29N89W DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE WATERS WHERE A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM SW FLORIDA AND THE KEYS SOUTHWESTWARD TO INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT WITH WIND DIRECTION FROM THE SE-S OVER THE WESTERN HALF...AND MAINLY VARIABLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. LATEST SEASTATE ANALYSIS AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE S OF 26N BETWEEN 85W-90W AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE WATERS ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT. THE PRESENT CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE EASTERN AND MIDDLE SECTIONS TODAY...BUT BEGIN TO CHANGE IN THE NW PORTION LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRY COLD FRONT MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF STRONGER HIGH PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S. SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THAT PART OF THE GULF. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATE WITH THE HIGH PRES AREA WILL BRING INCREASING N-NE WINDS OF 20 KT TO NW GULF WATERS TODAY. AS THE HIGH PARENT HIGH CENTER OF ABOUT 1031 MB THEN STARTS TO SHIFT ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH MON...N-NE 20 KT WINDS SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WHILE BECOMING MORE ELY. A TIGHT SQUEEZE IN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF MON IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN E WINDS OF 20 KT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN GULF ZONE INTO AT LEAST EARLY WED BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME WITH THE FURTHER EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF THE HIGH INTO THE ATLC OFF THE THE SE U.S. COAST. BY WED...RETURN SE-S FLOW SETS UP OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD THE MIDWEST REGION OF THE U.S. WINDS STAY E AT 20 KT ON THE SE PORTION AS PERSISTENT ATLC E FETCH CONTINUES UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS UP TO 9 FT BEGINNING SUN NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE GULF S OF 26N...AND IN THE EASTERN GULF S OF 26N MON. SEAS REMAIN AT 8-9 FT IN THOSE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 5 OR 6 FT INTO WED. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE PRELIMINARY 6 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1025 MB HIGH CENTER E OF THE ZONE AT 29N56W WITH A RIDGE SW TO CENTRAL CUBA AS A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W SW TO ABOUT WEST PALM BEACH AND CONTINUES SW TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. S-SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 27N PER ASCAT/OSCAT DATA...WITH HIGHER WINDS OF 25-30 KT N OF 30N. WINDS W OF THE COLD FRONT ARE NW-N AT 15-20 KT. ELSEWHERE BOTH BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEAL GENERALLY SE-S WINDS OF 15-20 KT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE PART WHERE NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE BEING REPORTED BY BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTS. WINDS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE FRONT ARE SE-S AT 5-10 KT. AS FOR SEAS...BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW MAX SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-9 FT IN THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION N OF 27N AND E OF THE FRONT TO 69W. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT WITH SEAS HIGHER...IN THE RANGE OF 5-7 FT IN AN E SWELL IN THE FAR SE WATERS AND 2-3 FT IN THE FAR SW PORTION BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE FRONT. AS THE HIGH CENTER E OF THE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT TO REACH A PSN FROM 31N76W TO THE NW BAHAMAS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE STATIONARY PORTION ALONG THE SE FLORIDA COAST AND KEYS. THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL QUICKLY LOSE ITS SUPPORT ON SUN WITH THE RESULT BEING THE COLD FRONT SLOWING DOWN A BIT. THE GULF OF MEXICO AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL THEN BEGIN TO SURGE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE ZONE SUN REINVIGORATING THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN ADVANCE TO A PSN FROM 31N70W TO THE CENTRAL AND STATIONARY TO WESTERN CUBA DURING SUN NIGHT...FROM ABOUT 31N65W TO 26N71W ...AND STATIONARY TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY MON. THE STRONG HIGH PRES AREA WILL BRIDGE OVER THE STATIONARY PART OF THE FRONT MON THROUGH TUE WASHING IT OUT WHILE THE COLD FRONT PART SHIFTS E OF THE ZONE. A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING E WINDS OF 20-25 KT TO THE WATERS S OF ABOUT 25N. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON. THE HIGH PRES AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH WED ALLOWING FOR THE 20-25 KT WINDS TO DIMINISH IN AREAL EXTENT BUT CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE...AND OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN A NE SWELL IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS STRONG NE FETCH HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NW CUBA SW TO INLAND THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SHIFTS E. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADES TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF THOSE SECTIONS. NE-E WINDS OF 30 KT IN THE SW ZONE VERY NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST ARE CONTINUING...AND ARE EXPECT THROUGH SUN WITH SOME EXPANSION NORTHWARD OF THESE WINDS SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE CARIBBEAN BUILDS FROM W TO E FURTHER TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS THE HIGH AREA THAT BUILDS FROM W TO E TO THE N OF THE AREA ALSO BUILDS S INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN INCREASING NE-E WINDS THERE TO 20 KT INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS UP TO 11 OR 12 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE ...FRESH E-NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE