000 AGXX40 KNHC 270730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONAL SURFACE AND BUOY DATA SHOW A COLD FRONT WITH CLOSE TO A N TO S ORIENTATION ADVANCING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA SSW TO JUST W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BEHIND IT WEAK HIGH PRES IS BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN SHOWING RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT ALONG A SQUALL LINE. LIGHTNING DATA SUGGESTS FREQUENT STRIKES WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND W-NW WINDS HAVE INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO NEAR 94W WITH A FEW OF THE OIL PLATFORM IN THE N CENTRAL GULF REVEALING WIND SPEEDS OF 30 KT. MODELS ARE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT MOVES TO A PSN FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLOW DOWN AS IT BEGINS TO STALL FROM JUST S OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES SE TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT THROUGH SUN...AND REACH FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT LATE SUN AND MON AS STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES EASTWARD WHILE BUILDING S ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN AND MIDDLE GULF. THE RESULTANT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS TO THE EASTERN GULF SUN NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TUE. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE PRELIMINARY 06 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1024 MB HIGH CENTER AT 32N66W WITH A RIDGE SW TO S FLORIDA. S-SW WINDS ARE INCREASING IN THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT AND PRECEDING SQUALL LINE. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE RATHER LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE PART WHERE NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE BEING REPORTED BY BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY SAT ALLOWING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT TO EMERGE INTO THE NW WATERS PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL FLATTEN OUT AND UPPER WINDS WILL BECOME ZONAL SAT...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LOSE ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N79W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA FRI...FROM 31N74W TO SOUTH FLORIDA FRI NIGHT THEN WEAKEN AND STALL FROM 31N73W TO FLORIDA KEYS SAT AND SUN. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION LATE SAT NIGHT...AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N70W TO THE NW BAHAMAS WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO WESTERN CUBA BY LATE SUN EVENING...FROM 30N65W TO 26N71W THEN STATIONARY TO WESTERN CUBA MON. THE STATIONARY PART OF THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS E ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...NE TRADES INCREASE S OF 17N TO 20 KT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI THROUGH SUN AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E OF THE FRONT AND INTENSIFIES. CARIBBEAN SEA... FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. THE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND STALL AS IT REACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN BECOME A DIFFUSE STATIONARY FRONT SAT AND SUN AS A SURGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS S FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INCREASING ELY WINDS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE ...FRESH E-NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE E CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH TUE. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE