000 AGXX40 KNHC 260650 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 AM EST THU JAN 26 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND THE 0408 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOW STRONG N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WHILE BUOYS SHOW STRONG SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THESE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST. THESE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT...MOVING THE FRONT INTO THE SE GULF BY FRI NIGHT AND STALLING IT THERE UNTIL HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SENDS ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF. THE FRONT BECOMES DISLODGED ON SUN AND PASSES SE OF THE AREA MON. A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST...BUT THE MODELS ARE REASONABLY SIMILAR. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO BRING DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IN THE GULF MORE QUICKLY THAN THE WW3 SHOWS...MORE LIKE THE ECMWF WAVE MODEL...COMPENSATING FOR THE KNOWN BIAS IN THE WW3. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W AND TROPICAL N ATLC...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT JUST N OF THE AREA HAS NUDGED THE BERMUDA HIGH SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH HAS ALLOWED THE AREA OF FRESH EASTERLY TRADES TO EXPAND BOTH OVER THE SW N ATLC AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES AS EVIDENCED BY THE 0044 UTC AND 0226 UTC ASCAT PASSES AND MULTIPLE SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL FRI WHEN A COLD FRONT REACHES FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE N FL COAST FRI...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO FRESH OVER NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THU NIGHT AND TO STRONG BY FRI MORNING. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT AND THE WIND FIELD AROUND IT. THE FRONT STALLS FROM 31N75W TO JUPITER FLORIDA FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING AND THEN THE BUILDING HIGH PRES TO ITS NW SENDS A NEW SURGE OF NORTHERN FLOW IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND PROPELS IT SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH THE WEAKENED FRONT LYING FROM 29N65W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA BY MON NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS DRIVEN BY THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER COLOMBIA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR WINDS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TODAY THROUGH SAT AS THE HIGH HAS BEEN NUDGED SOUTHWARD BY A COLD FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI AND STALL UNTIL HIGH PRES BUILDING NW OF THE FRONT CAN SEND A REINFORCING SURGE OF NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE FRONT AND PUSH IT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. THE FRONT BECOMES WASHED OUT FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON MON. NEITHER OF THESE MODELS SHOW FRESH NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE CARIBBEAN. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER