000 AGXX40 KNHC 250659 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST WED JAN 25 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BUOY 42002 IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO REPORTED 25 KT SE WINDS AT 06Z. THIS INCREASE IN WIND SPEED SINCE SUNSET IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS. THESE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE DRIVING FEATURE...THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH TEXAS TODAY...BY THU EVENING. THE GFS HOLDS ONTO A DISTINCT LOW CENTER THAT PASSES EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH FRI WHILE THE MODEL CONSENSUS PHASES THIS LOW INTO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER CARRYING THAT ENERGY OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MODEL THAT SHOWS THE BIGGEST NOD TO THE MORE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW SOLUTION SEEN IN THE GFS...BUT IT STILL PHASES THE LOW BY FRI MORNING. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE CLOSEST SOLUTION TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION WHICH CARRIES THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EASTWARD MORE QUICKLY THAN THE GFS THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF LATE THU/EARLY FRI AND DIMINISHES THE WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF MORE QUICKLY DURING THAT TIME. BECAUSE THE ECMWF WAS FAVORED DOWNSTREAM...TWILL STICK CLOSE TO ITS SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST WHICH USHERS IN FRESH N TO NE WINDS OVER THE GULF MORE SLOWLY THAN THE 00Z GFS. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CLIPPING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS BEGINNING TO NUDGE THE BERMUDA HIGH SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH IS EXPANDING THE AREA OF FRESH EASTERLY TRADES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SW N ATLC AS WELL AS EASTWARD INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE AS EVIDENCED BY THE 0108 UTC AND 0248 UTC ASCAT PASSES AND MULTIPLE SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL FRI WHEN A NEW COLD FRONT REACHES FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE N FL COAST FRI...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO FRESH OVER NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THU NIGHT. AS EXPLAINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THE 00Z ECMWF FORECAST IS PREFERRED WITH THIS FRONT. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI AND SAT THAN THE GFS. BY SUN EVE...THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD AROUND A FRONT FOUND FROM 31N70W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO CENTRAL CUBA. TO THE S...FRESH TRADES RETURN TO THE ENTIRE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH IS NUDGED E THIS FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS DRIVEN BY THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER COLOMBIA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR WINDS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY THROUGH SAT AFTER THE HIGH IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD BY A COLD FRONT. SE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS ALREADY CAUSED WINDS TO INCREASE TO FRESH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY THU AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI AND LIE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY SUN EVE....USHERING IN MAINLY MODERATE N WINDS W OF THE FRONT THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER