000 AGXX40 KNHC 241850 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. SE RETURN FLOW WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW IN NORTHERN MEXICO WILL APPROACH THE GULF WED AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN GULF WED EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE GFS CARRYING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LONGER THAN THE ECMWF. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY E THROUGH FRI...AND MOVE SE OF THE GULF SAT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH FAR NW PORTION THIS EVENING... SHIFTING THE HIGH SOUTHWARD ON WED. THIS WILL EXPAND THE AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 21N TO ABOUT 25N IN SOUTHWEST N ATLC... AND EASTWARD INTO NW PORTION OF TROPICAL N ATLC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 10N AND 14N TONIGHT AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS N OF THE AREA. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WED THROUGH THU. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF FLORIDA FRI... REACHING FROM 31N75W TO 27N80W SAT AND FROM 31N69W TO 27N80W SUN. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THU NIGHT...AND COULD EXCEED 30 KT N OF 30N AS IT MOVES OFF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. FRESH TRADES WILL RETURN TO THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS N OF THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS DRIVEN BY THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR BERMUDA AND LOWER PRES OVER COLOMBIA WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...WITH HIGHEST WINDS NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. E TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THU AS A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES CLOSER...THEN DIMINISH FRI AS THE FRONT REACHES YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT THEN WEAKEN INTO A SHEAR LINE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL