000 AGXX40 KNHC 240645 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE WEAK FRONT SPANNING ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN WILL LIFT N AND WEAKENING TODAY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS BEGINNING TO RETURN TO THE GULF AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF N OF 24N BY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AN UPPER LOW PASSING THROUGH THE SW U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL APPROACH THE GULF OF WED. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE GFS CARRYING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LONGER THAN THE ECMWF. ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY AND NUDGE THE BERMUDA HIGH SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY WED. THIS WILL EXPAND THE AREA OF FRESH EASTERLY TRADES CURRENTLY S OF 21N NORTHWARD OVER THE SW N ATLC ZONE TO ABOUT 25N AS WELL AS EASTWARD INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE. MEANWHILE...FRESH TRADES ARE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE S OF 15N ACCORDING TO THE 0124 UTC ASCAT PASS AND 0322 UTC OSCAT PASS AS WELL AS BUOY 41101. THESE TRADES WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS THE BERMUDA HIGH JOGS SLIGHTLY FURTHER FROM THE AREA. FRESH TRADES RETURN TO THE ENTIRE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE FRI AND SAT AS THE HIGH IS NUDGED E BY ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE FL COAST FRI...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO FRESH OVER NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THU NIGHT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE PERIOD IS WHETHER WINDS WILL GET TO GALE FORCE N OF 30N AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES OFF THE FL COAST. THE GFS SHOWS A BRIEF GALE WHILE THE ECMWF CAPS THE WINDS AT 30 KT. THE GEFS ONLY SHOWS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES FOR ONE 6-HR PERIOD. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT WINDS LESS THAN GALE FORCE. CARIBBEAN SEA... FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS DRIVEN BY THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER COLOMBIA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR WINDS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED THROUGH SAT AFTER THE HIGH IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD BY A COLD FRONT. ON WED...SE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INCREASE TO FRESH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN BEFORE DIMINISHING THU AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI AND USHER IN MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS W OF 84W THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER