000
AGXX40 KNHC 231900
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EST MON JAN 23 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO SOUTH TEXAS. WINDS 
ARE 10-15 KT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL 
SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND TUE WHILE 
WEAKENING WITH LITTLE EFFECT OTHER THAN SHIFTING WIND DIRECTION. 
E-SE RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
GULF BY TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED EVENING...WITH SE 
WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT W OF 90W WED AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE 
SHOWS LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS WED...THEN LINKING 
UP WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND 
TRANSITIONING INTO A COLD FRONT AS IT REACHES THE TEXAS COAST...
DUE TO A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS MEXICO. THE GFS 
AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. EXPECT THE DEVELOPING 
COLD FRONT TO SWEEP EASTWARD WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI THEN MOVE E 
OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT. GFS SHOWS 30 KT WINDS IN THE SW GULF ON
THU BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT NO GALES. WILL MAINTAIN 25-30 KT WIND
W OF THE FRONT IN LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT MAY UPGRADE TO A
GALE WARNING IF MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS HIGHER.
 
SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL PERSIST NEAR BERMUDA THROUGH TUE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL REACH FAR NW PORTION TUE...SHIFTING THE HIGH SOUTHWARD
ON WED. THIS WILL EXPAND THE AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 21N 
TO ABOUT 25N SOUTHWEST N ATLC...AND EASTWARD INTO NW PORTION OF 
TROPICAL N ATLC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 10N AND 14N TUE 
NIGHT AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS N OF THE AREA. FRESH TRADES 
WILL RETURN TO THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI AS HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS.
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PRODUCED BY PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BERMUDA HIGH AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT.
30 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED WED THROUGH FRI NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA 
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTHWARD BY A COLD FRONT IN GULF OF MEXICO. 
SE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WED THEN DIMINISH THU 
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS IN THE CHANNEL.
 
WARNINGS...

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE. 

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE. 

.SW N ATLC...
.NONE.
    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER MUNDELL