000 AGXX40 KNHC 230646 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EST MON JAN 23 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO A FRESH BREEZE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TX COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE 0330 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN AREA OF 20 KT WINDS N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...BUOY 42055 HAS INCREASED TO 19 KT...AND SEVERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN N GULF COASTAL PLAIN W OF 85W ARE REPORTING FRESH WINDS AT 06Z. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WEAK FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF COASTAL PLAIN TODAY BEFORE LIFTING N AND WEAKENING ON TUE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL AGAIN COVER THE GULF BY TUE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO FRESH OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF N OF 24N AT THAT TIME AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AN UPPER LOW PASSING THROUGH THE SW U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL APPROACH THE GULF OF WED. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON CARRYING THE UPPER LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO ALABAMA BY FRI MORNING WHILE THE CMC AND NOGAPS STILL HOLD ONTO SLOWER SOLUTIONS AND THE UKMET IS FASTER...HAVING PHASED THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM BY THIS TIME. WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION CLOSEST TO A CONSENSUS AND IN DECENT AGREEMENT...WILL LEAN TOWARD A BLEND OF THEIR SOLUTIONS. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W AND TROPICAL N ATLC...HIGH PRES PRES WILL GENERALLY PERSIST NEAR BERMUDA THROUGH TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA TUE AND NUDGE THE HIGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY WED. THIS WILL EXPAND THE AREA OF FRESH EASTERLY TRADES CURRENTLY S OF 21N NORTHWARD OVER THE SW N ATLC ZONE TO ABOUT 25N AS WELL EASTWARD INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE. MEANWHILE...FRESH TRADES IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE BETWEEN 10N AND 14N WILL DIMINISH LATE TUE AS THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM JOGS SLIGHTLY FURTHER FROM THE AREA. FRESH TRADES RETURN TO THE ENTIRE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE BY FRI AS THE HIGH IS NUDGED E BY ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS DRIVEN BY THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER COLOMBIA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR WINDS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WED THROUGH FRI AS THE HIGH IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD BY A COLD FRONT. ON WED...SE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INCREASE TO FRESH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN BEFORE DIMINISHING THU AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI AND USHER IN FRESH NW TO N WINDS THAT WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG IN THE CHANNEL. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER