000 AGXX40 KNHC 220700 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE GULF WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO A FRESH BREEZE OVER WESTERN WATERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TX COAST EARLY MON MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WEAK FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF COASTAL PLAIN MON BEFORE LIFTING N AND WASHING OUT ON TUE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL AGAIN COVER THE GULF BY TUE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO FRESH OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF N OF 24N AT THAT TIME AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AN UPPER LOW PASSING THROUGH THE SW U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL APPROACH THE GULF OF WED. BY THU MORNING...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS ON THE LOCATION OF THIS UPPER LOW...WITH THE NOGAPS WELL SW OF THE CONSENSUS OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS AND THE ECMWF THE FASTEST SOLUTION OVER THE ARKLATEX. WHILE THE ECMWF ENS MEAN IS WEAKER BUT SIMILARLY TIMED TO ITS OPERATIONAL RUN...THE GEFS MEAN AND THE PARALLEL VERSION OF THE GEFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SOLUTION THAT IS EVEN FURTHER SW THAN THE GFS...CLOSEST TO THE CMC. CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THIS LARGE SPREAD. THE UKMET IS CLOSEST TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE SYSTEM AND HAS A REPUTATION FOR HANDLING CUT OFF LOWS PASSING THROUGH THE SW U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO WELL. ANY ADJUSTMENTS MADE WILL BE TOWARD THE UKMET ON WED AND THU WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS AT THE SURFACE. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES PRES WILL GENERALLY PERSIST NEAR BERMUDA FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA TUE AND NUDGE THE HIGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY WED. THIS WILL INCREASE THE TRADE WINDS TO A FRESH BREEZE OVER THE SW N ATLC ZONE S OF 25N AS WELL AS THE NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE. MEANWHILE...FRESH TRADES IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE CENTERED NEAR 14N WILL DIMINISH LATE TUE/EARLY WED AS THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM JOGS SLIGHTLY FURTHER FROM THE AREA. FRESH TRADES RETURN TO THE ENTIRE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE BY FRI AS THE HIGH IS NUDGED E BY ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS DRIVEN BY THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER COLOMBIA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR WINDS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WED THROUGH FRI AS THE HIGH IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD BY A COLD FRONT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER