000 AGXX40 KNHC 211830 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... MODERATE S-SE RETURN FLOW PERSISTING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST OF TEXAS. FRONT WILL WEAKEN THEN STALL TONIGHT LACKING SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO DRIVE IT SE ACROSS THE GULF. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUN NIGHT... EXPECTED TO BRUSH ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD OF THE GULF N OF 26-27N MON THROUGH TUE MORNING AND WEAKEN INTO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 28-29N BY TUE AFTERNOON. SE RETURN FLOW INTENSIFIES TUE NIGHT AND WED AS A LOW PRES TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER S TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. BLEND OF ECMWF AND UKMET USED FOR TUE NIGHT-THU FCST. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W AND TROPICAL N ATLC... MODERATE HIGH PRES NEAR BERMUDA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SE THROUGH MON THEN WEAKEN NEAR 30N65W MON AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT SAGGING S INTO GEORGIA AND S CAROLINA TONIGHT AND SUN WILL ENHANCE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW N OF 28N W OF THE HIGH. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THEN DISSIPATE ALONG NORTHERN BOUNDARY BY SUN NIGHT. NEXT COLD FRONT REACHING N FLORIDA COAST LATE MON NIGHT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TUE THROUGH WED WITH LITTLE EFFECT OTHER THAN WIND SHIFT N OF 28N FROM SW TO N-NW THEN N AS THE FRONT WEAKENS WED NIGHT. MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS REST OF THE AREA S OF 28N. CARIBBEAN SEA... ASCAT PASS AT 1500 UTC CONTINUES TO SHOW 25-30 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW OVER N COLOMBIA AND HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 20-25 KT WINDS EXTEND FURTHER N TO AROUND 17N IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND FRESH WINDS EXTEND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUN WILL SHIFT SUBTROPICAL HIGH E AND WEAKEN TRADE WINDS SLIGHTLY. WINDS WILL RE-INTENSIFY TUE-WED AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL