000 AGXX40 KNHC 201929 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TO NE MEXICO. GENERALLY MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT NOTED ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT TO A WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY SAT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL AS AND LIFT NORTH INTO SUN AS THE PARENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT. A SECOND...A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUN...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW GULF SUN NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS MODEL IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS CONCERNING THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT...BUT REMAINS FASTER THAN 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET...WITH UKMET THE COMPROMISE SOLUTION. THE FRONT SHIFTS SE REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS...THEN BEGINS TO STALL FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE SW GULF BY LATE MON. LOOKING AHEAD...SE RETURN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE GULF TUE AS A STRONGER DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SW UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A SURFACE LOW OVER COASTAL S TEXAS BY WED MORNING...THAT PUSHES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY THU...WITH STRONG N WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF FOLLOWING A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE COAST VERACRUZ BY LATE WED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY DATA SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. DESPITE A RELATIVELY WEAK FRONT MIGRATING N OF THE AREA...RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE N OF THE AREA THROUGH SUN...MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE AREA. SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP DATA ARE SHOWING WINDS TO 25 KT OFF COLOMBIA AND 30 KT IS NOT UNREASONABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BUOY DATA SHOW THAT N AND NE SWELL TO 9 FT IS PROPAGATING INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W BUT THIS IS STARTING TO SUBSIDE. LOOKING AHEAD...WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO DISPLACES SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. WINDS WILL VEER SE AND INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF LOW PRES DIGGING INTO THE NW GULF. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N60W TO NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS CONTINUES TO MIGRATE E OF THE AREA AND WEAKEN FURTHER AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BETWEEN CENTRAL FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. BUOY DATA INDICATES FRESH NE FLOW N OF 28N E OF 70W IS STARTING TO DIMINISH AS THE RIDGE BUILDS E. SIMILARLY TRADE WINDS S OF 22N ARE STARTING TO INCREASE S OF THE RIDGE. LATEST CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL MODELS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MON...AND OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST MON NIGHT BEFORE STALLING BETWEEN BERMUDA AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH TUE...AND LIFTING IT N OF THE AREA BY MID WEEK. BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WEAK...TRADE WIND FLOW S OF 22N DOES NOT WEAKEN APPRECIABLY THROUGH WED. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN