000 AGXX40 KNHC 200724 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI WITH A RIDGE AXIS LINGERING OVER THE N WATERS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF TEXAS SAT AFTERNOON...BUT IMMEDIATELY STALLS SAT EVENING AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE S AND PUSHES THE WEAKENING FRONT N OF THE AREA. OVERALL...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00Z MODELS THROUGH SAT EVENING. DIFFERENCE COME IN TO PLAY ON SUN WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT DIVES S THROUGH THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THE 24-HOUR TREND IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IS TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THIS COLD FRONT. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND CLOSER TO THE NOGAPS AND CMC SOLUTIONS WHILE THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SIDE WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE PARENT MODELS. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND THE TREND IS TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION...WILL HEDGE SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND TAILOR THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THIS PACKAGE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LOSE MUCH OF ITS PUNCH S OF 25N OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT AS THE DEEP LAYER SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE GULF. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT MOVES E OF AREA. THE 0112 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF FRESH WINDS OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND CONFIRMED BY SHIP C6VG8 JUST N OF THE AREA AT 0300 UTC. THESE WINDS WILL DISSIPATE AS THE FRONT MOVES E ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO LINGER NEAR BERMUDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLC U.S. COASTS N OF THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER NW WATERS SAT...ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO BRIEFLY BECOME FRESH UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES WELL NE SUN. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE W ON MON. THE FORECAST THINKING IS TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS LOGIC IS EXPLAINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION. BY TUE MORNING...THE PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTION IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE UKMET. THEY BOTH CARRY THE FRONT FROM FAR NE FL THROUGH THE FL BIG BEND WHILE THE GFS IS APPROXIMATELY 90-100 NM FASTER. LARGE NE TO N SWELLS HAVE BROUGHT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE OVER THE ENTIRE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT SEAS TO 8 FT WILL LINGER OVER WATERS S OF 18N THROUGH MON AS FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE SWELL. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER FL APPROACHES IT ON TUE....ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY LATE TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0248 UTC SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WITHIN APPROXIMATELY 180 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS WELL AS S OF EASTERN CUBA WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND LOWER PRES OVER COLOMBIA. AS THE HIGH MOVES E...THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL EXPAND AND SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SAT THROUGH SUN. THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO SHOVE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH NE BEGINNING MON...WEAKENING THE TRADE WINDS A NOTCH BY TUE. THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING IS PREFERRED WITH THIS COLD FRONT TO THE N AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS FORECAST REASONING IS EXPLAINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER