000 AGXX40 KNHC 171945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SW GULF...WHILE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALIGNED THE TEXAS COAST. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEFINE THE WIND FLOW WITH RESPECT TO DIRECTION. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE GULF SHOW GENERALLY S-SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT N OF THE RIDGE AND E-SE 10-15 KT S OF THE RIDGE. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE NW GULF WHERE S-SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. SEA STATE ANALYSES BASED ON SHIP DATA FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED SEAS OF UP TO 10 FT IN THE FAR SRN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLIER TODAY...BUT HAVE SUBSIDED SOME SINCE. THE AREA OF DENSE FOG IN THE NW GULF AND OVER SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE MIDDLE GULF APPEARS TO HAVE THINNED OUT BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS FROM OIL PLATFORMS THERE. THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE...AND HAS THE RIDGE SLIDING TO E OF THE GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS TO ENTER THE NW WATERS EARLY TONIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY THE NWP MODELS.THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NW BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY WED MORNING...FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT...THEN STALL BRIEFLY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THU. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BECOME N-NE 20-25 K TONIGHT INTO WED BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FROM THE SW...BUT MAINLY N OF 26N THROUGH WED NIGHT. WINDS VEER AROUND QUICKLY AND ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THU AS TH FRONT LIFTS BACK N AS A WARM FRONT INTO FRI. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN TEXAS SAT BEFORE STALLING INTO SUN. AN ATLC RIDGE WILL NOSE WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN FRI THROUGH SUN TO SET MOSTLY SLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT. WINDS SHIFT TO SW AT 10-15 KT SAT IN THE FAR NW GULF...AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT SUN...PERHAPS BECOMING VARIABLE. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATING ACROSS THE FAR SE WATERS EXTENDING SW TO EASTERN HISPANIILA. STRONG HIGH PRES PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE MUCH OF THE WATERS. HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT DATA FROM 1440 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT TO NW OF THE FRONT TO S OF 27N AND W TO 70W. BUOYS REPORTS SHOW LIGHTER WIND CONDITIONS W OF THAT POINT. WINDS SE OF THE FRONT ARE NE-E 10-15 KT. SEAS UP TO 11 FT IN N SWELLS ARE BEING REPORTED BY BUOYS 41043 AT 21N65W AND UP TO 13 FT BY BUOY 41044 AT 22N59W. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN TROPICAL THROUGH WED NIGHT WHILE DISSIPATING AS THE STRONG RIDGE SLIDES TO E OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW 20-25 KT WINDS TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE FAR NRN WATERS BEGINNING TUE NIGHT AND INTO WED S YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THU...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE SE PORTION FRI INTO SAT SIMILAR TO WHAT THE CURRENT FRONT IS FORECAST TO DO. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRUSHES THE FAR NRN BOUNDARY OF THE ZONE FRI...AND INCREASING SW WINDS SET UP AGAIN OVER THE NW WATERS SAT AND SUN AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN AND SE U.S. AND BRUSHES THE FAR NRN WATERS LATE SAT AND SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG ATLC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NRN HALD OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT IS KEEPING GALE FORCE NE-E 30-35 KT WINDS OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE SW ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 14 FT. THE GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE LOWERED BY EALRY WED. ELSEWHERE THE STRONG GRADIENT IS KEEPING NE-E 20-30 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WHILE NE-E 20-25 KT ARE ELSEWHERE W OF ABOUT 68W. A LIGHTER GRADIENT E OF 68W IS ALLOWING FOR NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF WED AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH SUN AS AS ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS S. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ084...GALE WARNING S OF 12N E OF 77W.... .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 171945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SW GULF...WHILE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALIGNED THE TEXAS COAST. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEFINE THE WIND FLOW WITH RESPECT TO DIRECTION. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE GULF SHOW GENERALLY S-SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT N OF THE RIDGE AND E-SE 10-15 KT S OF THE RIDGE. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE NW GULF WHERE S-SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. SEA STATE ANALYSES BASED ON SHIP DATA FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED SEAS OF UP TO 10 FT IN THE FAR SRN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLIER TODAY...BUT HAVE SUBSIDED SOME SINCE. THE AREA OF DENSE FOG IN THE NW GULF AND OVER SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE MIDDLE GULF APPEARS TO HAVE THINNED OUT BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS FROM OIL PLATFORMS THERE. THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE...AND HAS THE RIDGE SLIDING TO E OF THE GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS TO ENTER THE NW WATERS EARLY TONIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY THE NWP MODELS.THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NW BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY WED MORNING...FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT...THEN STALL BRIEFLY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THU. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BECOME N-NE 20-25 K TONIGHT INTO WED BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FROM THE SW...BUT MAINLY N OF 26N THROUGH WED NIGHT. WINDS VEER AROUND QUICKLY AND ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THU AS TH FRONT LIFTS BACK N AS A WARM FRONT INTO FRI. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN TEXAS SAT BEFORE STALLING INTO SUN. AN ATLC RIDGE WILL NOSE WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN FRI THROUGH SUN TO SET MOSTLY SLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT. WINDS SHIFT TO SW AT 10-15 KT SAT IN THE FAR NW GULF...AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT SUN...PERHAPS BECOMING VARIABLE. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATING ACROSS THE FAR SE WATERS EXTENDING SW TO EASTERN HISPANIILA. STRONG HIGH PRES PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE MUCH OF THE WATERS. HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT DATA FROM 1440 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT TO NW OF THE FRONT TO S OF 27N AND W TO 70W. BUOYS REPORTS SHOW LIGHTER WIND CONDITIONS W OF THAT POINT. WINDS SE OF THE FRONT ARE NE-E 10-15 KT. SEAS UP TO 11 FT IN N SWELLS ARE BEING REPORTED BY BUOYS 41043 AT 21N65W AND UP TO 13 FT BY BUOY 41044 AT 22N59W. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN TROPICAL THROUGH WED NIGHT WHILE DISSIPATING AS THE STRONG RIDGE SLIDES TO E OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW 20-25 KT WINDS TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE FAR NRN WATERS BEGINNING TUE NIGHT AND INTO WED S YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THU...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE SE PORTION FRI INTO SAT SIMILAR TO WHAT THE CURRENT FRONT IS FORECAST TO DO. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRUSHES THE FAR NRN BOUNDARY OF THE ZONE FRI...AND INCREASING SW WINDS SET UP AGAIN OVER THE NW WATERS SAT AND SUN AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN AND SE U.S. AND BRUSHES THE FAR NRN WATERS LATE SAT AND SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG ATLC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NRN HALD OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT IS KEEPING GALE FORCE NE-E 30-35 KT WINDS OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE SW ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 14 FT. THE GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE LOWERED BY EALRY WED. ELSEWHERE THE STRONG GRADIENT IS KEEPING NE-E 20-30 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WHILE NE-E 20-25 KT ARE ELSEWHERE W OF ABOUT 68W. A LIGHTER GRADIENT E OF 68W IS ALLOWING FOR NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF WED AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH SUN AS AS ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS S. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ084...GALE WARNING S OF 12N E OF 77W.... .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE