000 AGXX40 KNHC 170641 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS SW FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE NW BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH SE-S WINDS AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS. THESE SLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT EARLY THIS MORNING AND CLOCK TO THE SW JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TX COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE NW BAY OF CAMPECHE MIDDAY WED. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS THE FL STRAITS...MOISTURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL E-W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF ALONG ABOUT 24N THU WITH A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE BRIEFLY DEVELOPING NEAR 23.5N96W. AS A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH PRES SHIFTS E ACROSS THE CONUS ALONG 32N A RIDGE WILL SHIFT S OVER THE NW GULF WATERS WITH ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP LATE THU...AND LIFTING THE FRONTAL REMNANTS QUICKLY N AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAINS AROUND SUNRISE FRI. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO NE OLD MEXICO WITH SLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT OVER THE WESTERN WATERS AND 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE E OF 92W ON FRI...AND DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THROUGH THE GULF ON SAT. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A COLD FRONT WASHING OUT FROM 22N55W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE SE AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS E OF THE LEEWARDS THROUGH WED. AS A SURFACE HIGH PASSES E TO THE N OF BERMUDA TODAY AN NNE-SSW RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE INTO THE AREA EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO NE FL THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING S TO A POSITION FROM 31N60W TO SE FL AT SUNRISE WED...AND RETRACTING E OF THE BAHAMAS LATE WED. SLY WINDS NW OF RIDGE WILL INCREASE 15-20 KT EARLY TONIGHT AND 20-25 KT EARLY WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONT MOVING OFF THE GA COAST WED AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS THU AFTERNOON. BY FRI AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N57W TO 26N65W THEN STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH THE SEGMENT W OF 65W LIFTING N ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FAR NW WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG NE LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BRIDGE THROUGH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING E-W ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO E CUBA. A LARGE AREA OF NE WINDS AT 25-30 KT PERSIST OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH A SMALL AREA OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA. SHIP C6SE3 REPORTING 36 KT AT 06Z WITH SHIP QC SUGGESTING FAIRLY GOOD WIND SPEEDS TILL 06Z WHICH INDICATES A 10 KT HIGH BIAS. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME TODAY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH THESE DIMINISHING WINDS SPREADING E ACROSS THE N CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH WED. GENERALLY EXPECT NE-E WINDS AT 10-15 KT ALL WATERS THU AND FRI INCREASING SOME EARLY SAT...EXCEPT 15-25 KT S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W-80W. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ084...GALE WARNING FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 77W.... .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON