000 AGXX40 KNHC 160614 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM THE FL BIG BEND TH NE TX COAST WITH E-SE WINDS AT 15-20 KT ACROSS ENTIRE GULF AND BECOMING SE-S TONIGHT. THESE SLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT TUE AND CLOCK TO SW JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TX COAST TUE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE MIDDAY WED. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS THE FL STRAITS...MOISTURE GUIDANCE IS FIRM ON THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT STALLING E-W THU ALONG 24N WITH A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE NEAR 23N96W. AS SURFACE HIGH PRES SHIFTS E ACROSS THE CONUS ALONG 32N SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP THU NIGHT LIFTING THE FRONTAL REMNANTS N AND REACHING THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AT SUNRISE FRI...WITH A NEW RIDGE THEN EXTENDING FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE TX COASTAL BEND. SLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT AHEAD OF FRONT WILL CLOCK TO THE N-NE AT 20-25 KT N OF FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...BUT DIMINISH T0 10-15 KT AS FRONT STALLS. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BE AT 15 KT FRI...EXCEPT 15-20 KT NW WATERS. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W AND TROPICAL N ATLC ...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 31N57W TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND APPROACHING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WILL CONTINUE E OVER THE ATLC WATERS WITH THE SEGMENT N OF 26N MOVING E OF 55W LATE TODAY. THE FRONTAL SEGMENT S OF 26N WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE AND EXTEND ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS FROM 22N55W TO HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND TUE. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ALONG 18N TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH MOISTURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SHEAR AXIS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 15N-17N ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS WED AND THU. S-SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20-25 KT TO THE N OF 28N E OF FRONT AS IT PASSES E OF 55W THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXPECTED SECONDARY W OF THE FRONT IS ON SCHEDULE AS SHIPS AND BUOYS REPORTED INCREASED NW WINDS AT 20-25 KT EARLIER. STILL EXPECT THESE NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 20 KT AND CLOCK TO THE NE LATE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY AND THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE. AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES E OFF THE CAROLINAS WINDS WILL BECOME SE 10-15 KT OVER THE NW ATLC WATERS. BY TUE AFTERNOON A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO NE FL THEN SHIFT TO A POSITION FROM 31N60W TO SE FL LATE TUE NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL RETRACT E OF THE BAHAMAS LATE WED. SLY WINDS NW OF RIDGE WILL INCREASE 15-20 KT TUE NIGHT AND 20-25 KT WED IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONT MOVING OFF THE GA COAST WED AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THU AFTERNOON. BY FRI AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO 24N65W THEN STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. NLY WINDS WILL ONLY INCREASE TO 20 KT BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... NE LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BRIDGE THROUGH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO GRAND CAYMAN. NE WINDS AT 25-30 KT PERSIST ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA...WHILE 20-25 KT ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W...AND NE 15-20 KT OVER THE AREA E OF 70W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME TONIGHT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH THESE DIMINISHING WINDS SPREADING E ACROSS THE N CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH WED. GENERALLY EXPECT NE-E WINDS AT 10-15 KT ALL WATERS THU AND FRI...EXCEPT 15-25 KT S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W-80W. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON