000 AGXX40 KNHC 151953 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... PRESENTLY...THE MAIN FEATURE IS A 1032 MB HIGH CENTER JUST SW OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. A RIDGE FROM THE HIGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN AND MIDDLE GULF SECTIONS WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE FAR SRN WATERS. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT N OF 25N E OF 87W...WHILE E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE EXCEPT IN THE FAR SRN PORTION WHERE THE TIGHT GRADIENT KEEPS NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT. WINDS IN THE FAR NW GULF ARE S AT 15 KT. PARTIAL ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED NE WINDS OF 20 KT IN THE FAR E PART OF THE SW GULF...AND SUGGEST SIMILAR WINDS IN THE FAR SW PART OF THE MIDDLE GULF. SEA STATE ANALYSES BASED ON SHIP DATA FROM THIS MORNING HIGHLIGHTED SEAS UP TO 9 AND 10 FT IN THE FAR SRN PART OF THE EASTERN GULF NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA...AND INTO THE WRN STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AS FOR THE FORECAST...THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR SLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUE. THE NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE SRN PORTION WILL DIMINISH TO E-SE AT 10-15 KT ON TUE WITH SEAS THERE SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT. WITH THE HIGH FORECAST TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE GULF...THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF. LATEST NWP MODEL RUNS ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO HINTING THAT THE FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF ON TUE EVENING. THE 12 UTC ECMWF RUN...HOWEVER...IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT EMERGING OFF THE COAST ON TUE NIGHT THAN NWP MODEL CONSENSUS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FORECAST...AS WITH RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGES... PASSAGES...TO QUICKLY REACH A PSN FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA SW TO NE MEXICO BY EARLY WED...FROM TAMPA FLORIDA SW TO 25N89W TO WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THU BEFORE LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH FRI. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BECOME NW-N 15-20 KT TUE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO NE AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ON WED AND NW-N 20-25 KT IN THE SW GULF WED BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AT THOSE SPEEDS. THE 12 UTC ECMWF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND GUIDANCE IS VERY WEAK WITH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WED AT WHICH TIME IT ONLY SHOWS 15 KT. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS/UKMET/NAM GUIDANCE FOR WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT WINDS REACHING 30 KT IN THE SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE AT 20-25 KT AND WILL UPDATE TO HIGHER SPEEDS PENDING MORE CONSISTENCY OF FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE. BY FRI E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND MIDDLE GULF ZONES...WITH SE-S WINDS OF 15 KT OVER MICH OF THE WESTERN GULF WITH PERHAPS A SMALL POCKET OF 15-20 KT IN THE NW PART OF THE SW GULF AND NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT IN THE FAR SRN PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA THROUGH 27N65W...AND EXTENDING TO EASTERN CUBA WHERE IT BECOMES A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT DATA FROM 1520 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NRN WATERS E OF 79W ...AND GENERALLY N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT NW-N 10-15 KT WINDS FROM 25N TO 28N...AND NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT S OF 25N W OF THE BAHAMAS. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE THROUGH MON...WITH A LINGERING DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING BACK OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE THROUGH AT LEAST WED. S-SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20 KT TO THE N OF 28N E OF FRONT THROUGH EARLY MON. WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD THROUGH TUE NIGHT ...THIS WILL MEAN THAT HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL BE ALIGNED FROM FROM BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA TUE...FROM 28N65W TO SE FLORIDA TUE NIGHT...THEN RETREAT TO E OF THE BAHAMAS WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLY WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR NRN WATERS THROUGH WED...PRIOR TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE NW WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA THU...AND STALL ALONG 25N THU NIGHT AND FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRES IS BRIDGING SEWD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE TAIL OF THE ATLC COLD FRONT. THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT IS RESULTING IN NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A STRONGER GRADIENT IN THE FAR SRN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 20-30 KT WITH SEAS POSSIBLY UP TO 13 FT. A LIGHTER GRADIENT ELSEWHERE IS ALLOWING FOR NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT. THESE WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME MON NIGHT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SPREADING E ACROSS THE N CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND ACROSS THE NE PORTION WED THROUGH FRI. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE