000 AGXX40 KNHC 150653 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A TROUGH EXTENDS NW TO SE OVER THE SW GULF FROM 23N96W TO 18N92W. NW WINDS AT 15 KT ARE NOTED SW OF THE TROUGH WHILE NE WINDS 15-20 KT ARE NOTED NE OF TROUGH TO ALONG 24N AND EXTENDING E TO THE FL STRAITS. REMNANTS OF TROUGH WILL DRIFT INLAND LATE MON AND DISSIPATE. A SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA WILL MOVE NE OF AREA THIS MORNING LEAVING A RIDGE FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO NE OLD MEXICO TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON WITH E-SE WINDS 15-20 KT ALL WATERS THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FL TO SE TEXAS MON NIGHT THEN WEAKEN AND RETRACT E TUE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TX COAST. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WED...AND STALL ALONG 25N THU WITH A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE NEAR 24N96W. THE FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL MOVE N THU NIGHT REACHING THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AT SUNRISE FRI WITH A NEW RIDGE FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE TX COASTAL BEND. SLY WINDS AT 15 KT AHEAD OF FRONT WILL CLOCK TO THE N-NE AT 15-20 KT N OF FRONT WED BUT DIMINISH T0 10-15 KT AS FRONT STALLS. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W AND TROPICAL N ATLC ... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 31N62W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE E OVER THE ATLC WATERS TO THE N OF 26N AND MOVE E OF 55W MON WHILE THE FRONTAL SEGMENT S OF 26N WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS MON...AND EXTEND ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS FROM 22N55W TO HISPANIOLA MON NIGHT AND TUE. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ALONG 18N TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH MOISTURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SHEAR AXIS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 15N-17N ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS WED AND THU. S-SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20 KT TO THE N OF 28N E OF FRONT THROUGH EARLY MON. W-NW WINDS AT 15-20 KT W OF FRONT THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AND CLOCK TO THE N LATE TODAY...THEN DIMINISH TO N-NE 20 KT LATE TONIGHT. AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES E OFF THE CAROLINAS MON WINDS WILL BECOME SLY OVER THE NW ATLC WATERS. BY EARLY TUE A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO NE FL THEN SHIFTING TO A POSITION FROM 31N60W TO SE FL TUE NIGHT... WITH THE RIDGE RETRACTING E OF THE BAHAMAS WED NIGHT AND THU. SLY WINDS NW OF RIDGE WILL INCREASE 15-20 KT TUE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONT MOVING OFF THE GA COAST WED AFTERNOON... REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THU AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... NE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE BRIDGING THROUGH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE FRONT IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO POSITION. NE WINDS AT 25-30 KT PERSIST ALONG THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA...AND 20-25 KT ELSEWHERE OVER THE S CENTRAL AND SW PORTION...AND NE 15-20 KT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BUT EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NW WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME MON NIGHT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SPREADING E ACROSS THE N CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND ACROSS THE NE PORTION WED AND THU. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON