000 AGXX40 KNHC 131816 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA T0 21N93W TO 18N94W. SHIP...BUOY...AND SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THE PAST 6 HOURS HAVE SHOWN 15 TO 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING TO DIMINISH AHEAD OF 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE NW GULF FROM TEXAS. BUOY 42055 IN THE SW GULF REPORTED SEAS AS HIGH AS 13 FT EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT SEAS THERE HAVE SUBSIDED TO 9 FT ALREADY. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP SE OF THE GULF LATER THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH NE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SW RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF MON AND TUE...AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUE. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM APALACHICOLA TO NE MEXICO BY EARLY WED...AND FROM N OF TAMPA TO 25N95W TO 21N97W BY LATE WED. EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... ASCAT DATA FROM 1426 UTC SHOWED 25 TO 30 KT WINDS PERSISTING WITHIN 120 NM OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF CURRENTLY WILL WILL MERGE WITH A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON. THE MERGED FRONT WILL SAG SE THROUGH SAT...THEN STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY LATE SUN. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARDS MON AND TUE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT N OF THE REGION. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE NE UNITED STATES IS STARTING TO LIFT NE. ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT N OF 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W IS DIMINISHING AS IT SHIFTS N OF 30N WITH THE EXITING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FURTHER WEST...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N75W TO SE FLORIDA WILL SHIFT SE AND OVERTAKE THE STATIONARY FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A 1422 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE FRONT WELL AND SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 29N. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N69W TO 23N79W BY EARLY SAT...FROM 28N65W TO 21N75W BY SUN MORNING...FROM 23N65W TO 20N73W BY EARLY MON...AND SE OF THE AREA BY TUE. A REINFORCING SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS BY LATE SAT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...TO INCLUDE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND OVER THE GULF STREAM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA BY MON ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH N OF 27N...BUT MAINTAINING 20 TO 25 KT TRADES S OF 27N THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST BY LATE WED. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN