000 AGXX40 KNHC 110705 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W THEN ALONG THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOTED WITHIN AROUND 130 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT S OF 25N. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS AND SURFACE DATA SHOW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. MODELS ARE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH A PSN FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE FAR SE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THU WHILE WEAKENING. THE 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE STILL FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TODAY AND TO 10-15 KT THU. WINDS HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE SW GULF AS A HIGH PRES SETTLES NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 6-9 FT BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF ON THU. NW TO N WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 11 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EXITING THE GULF BY LATE FRI. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF IN ITS WAKE THROUGH SUN...HOWEVER A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS MAINTAINING N-NE WINDS OF ABOUT 15-20 KT AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT THERE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PERSIST NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT DOWN THERE. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO MODERATE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW NE WINDS OF 15 KT...BUT IT WILL BE A SHORT RESPITE AS CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS SW INTENSIFYING THE PRES GRADIENT THROUGHOUT THE AREA INTO SUN. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REACHING 35 KT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRI ALONG OR VERY NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. BASED ON RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL HANG UP IN THAT VICINITY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF WILL MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS FIRST FRONT LATER ON FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SE FROM THE GULF INTO MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT WILL FORTIFY THE ALREADY PRESENT NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT INTO 20-25 KT WINDS LATE SAT AND SUN. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS THERE TO 9 FT...AND TO POSSIBLY 12 OR 13 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FRI INTO EARLY SAT BEFORE SUBSIDING SOME THROUGH SUN. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A CLOD FRONT IS CLIPPING THE NE PORTION OF THE ZONE WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL. THE FRONT WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS. THE 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 29N73W. NE WINDS OF 15 KT OCCASIONALLY TO 20 KT ARE STILL NOTED OVER THE FAR SRN WATERS PARTICULARLY S OF 22N E OF 75W. BOTH BUOYS AND ASCAT DATA REVEAL MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE HIGH TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM 31N75W TO WESTERN CUBA THU...THEN WEAKEN FROM 31N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST THU NIGHT AND REACH FROM 31N72W TO WESTERN CUBA FRI...FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT...AND FROM 31N65W TO EASTERN CUBA SAT...THEN WEAKEN AND STALL SUN. EXPECT SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEGINNING THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY N OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W AND NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. SWLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT THU NIGHT WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 12 FT. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE N WATERS N OF 27N. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR