000 AGXX40 KNHC 101955 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE HEADWAY THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF AS NOTED PER SURFACE AND MARINE OBSERVATIONS TO EXTEND FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA S TO 25N92W...AND SW TO THE SW GULF AND INLAND MEXICO AT 20N97W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER EXTENSIVE MOISTURE PLUME ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BEING CHANNELED NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC NE AROUND THE SE PERIPHERY OF A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NE TEXAS. BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY REVEAL LARGE CLUSTERS OF HEAVY TSTM ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TO ABOUT 300 NM...AND N OF 27N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WITHIN 120 NM ELSEWHERE WITHIN E OF THE FRONT WHILE AREA OF RAIN ARE OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM 30N92W TO JUST SE OF EXTREME SRN TEXAS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM BOTH OFFSHORE BUOY AND OIL PLATFORMS CLEARLY REVEAL A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SE-S AT 20 KT E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N TO NW-N 20-25 KT BEHIND IT. IN ADDITION...INFERENCE FROM A 1526 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SUGGESTED SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS. WINDS E OF THE FRONT S OF 26N ARE SE-S 10-15 KT WITH SEAS THERE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. THE BUOYS ALSO REVEAL MAX SEAS HAVE BUILD TO 9 FT IN THE NW GULF ZONE PER BUOY 42002 AT 26N94W. MODELS ARE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH A PSN FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT...FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA WED MORNING...THEN MOVE ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE FAR SE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THU WHILE WEAKENING. THE 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE STILL FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 15-20 KT WED AND TO 10-15 KT THU. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOONER IN THE SW GULF TONIGHT...AND BE LIGHTER IN THE E GULF WED AND WED NIGHT...PERHAPS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20 KT ON THU BEFORE DIMINISHING BACK TO 10-15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 6-8 FT BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...EXCEPT TO 10 FT IN THE SW GULF THROUGH THU. MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF ON THU. UNDER A VERY ACTIVE SRN STREAM...THIS FRONT WILL ALSO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EXITING THE GULF BY LATE FRI. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF IN ITS WAKE THROUGH SUN ...HOWEVER A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS MAINTAINING N-NE WINDS OF ABOUT 15-20 KT AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT THERE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PERSIST NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS HINTED BY "TUMBLE WEED" APPEARING CLOUDS JUST NW OF COLOMBIA AS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. FRESH EASTERLY WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ARE FORECAST TO STILL DECREASE INTO EARLY WED...BUT IT WILL BE A SHORT RESPITE AS CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS SW INTENSIFYING THE PRES GRADIENT THROUGHOUT THE AREA INTO SUN. 30 METER WIND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REACHING 35 KT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRI ALONG OR VERY NEAR THE COAST. WINDS STILL PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE SE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WED EVENING...WITH ITS TAIL END DROPPING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT. BASED ON RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THAT OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL HANG UP IN THAT VICINITY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF WILL MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS FIRST FRONT LATER ON FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG HIGH BUILDING SE FROM THE GULF INTO MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT WILL FORTIFY THE ALREADY PRESENT NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT INTO 20-25 KT WINDS LATE SAT AND SUN. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS THERE TO 9 FT...AND TO POSSIBLY 12 OR 13 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FRI INTO EARLY SAT BEFORE SUBSIDING SOME THROUGH SUN. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 29N76W...AND WEAK TROUGH ROUGHLY ALONG 71W S OF 26N. NE WINDS OF 15 TO AT TIMES 20 KT ARE NOTED OVER THE FAR SRN WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA AND NW HAITI. BOTH BUOYS AND ASCAT DATA REVEAL MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY E-SE 10-15 KT S OF 26N W OF THE BAHAMAS ...NE-E S OF 26N E OF THE BAHAMAS AND S-SW WINDS 5-10 KT N OF 26N W OF 76W...VARIABLE 5-10 KT N OF 26N BETWEEN 73W-76W AND W-NW 15-20 KT E OF 73W. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT...EXCEPT BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND CUBA 5-6 FT. THE FORECAST...BASED ON PROJECTION OF LATEST AND FORMER MODEL RUNS...CALLS FOR THE HIGH TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WED NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM FROM NEAR 31N75W TO WESTERN CUBA BY THU AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN FROM NEAR 31N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY THU EVENING AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. EXPECT SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEGINNING ON WED BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY N OF THE BAHAMAS. THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST THU EVENING...AND REACH FROM NEAR 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI MORNING. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO REACH FROM 31N70W TO EAST CENTRAL CUBA FRI EVENING...FROM 31N65W TO EASTERN CUBA SAT NIGHT AND FROM NEAR 26N65W TO HAITI SUN. NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO THE NE SUN...BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SRN WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 FT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE