000 AGXX40 KNHC 081841 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 141 PM EST SUN JAN 8 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1023 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 26N/27N RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE FAR W CENTRAL GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. UNTIL THEN...MODERATE WINDS AND MAINLY 2-4 FT SEAS IN THE W GULF AND 1-3 FT SEAS IN THE E GULF WILL PREVAIL. THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS LAGGING BEHIND...AND THE UKMET CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. USED A BLEND OF THESE 3 SCENARIOS FOR THE MOVEMENT/TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST MON NIGHT REACHING FROM SW LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE MORNING...FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA WED MORNING...THEN MOVING E OF THE GULF LATE WED. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT IN THE NW AND SW GULF WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL AND E GULF. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. MODEL GUIDANCE NOW BRINGS IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DROP S INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... MODERATE NE-E TRADES DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MEANWHILE A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS APPROACHING THE SE CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED ALTHOUGH FRESH EASTERLY WINDS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT HAD TIGTHENED DUE TO THIS FEATURE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THERE TO 10-15 KT MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SNEAK INTO THE FAR NW PORTION EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO BELIZE THU WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL THEN TIGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT... LATE THU INTO FRI AS CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS AND RIDGES SW TOWARD THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF FRESH TRADES FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A WEAK TROUGH FROM NEAR 31N70W TO 29N72W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS E OF 70W. OTHER THAN THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD DISSIPATING BY MON MORNING. HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THERE TO NEAR 28N73W. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH 4-6 FT IN THE SE PORTION...2-4 FT IN THE N PORTION...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE S OF 23N/22N WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT. A COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE NE PORTION ON TUE WITH A BRIEF EPISODE OF 20 KT WINDS ACCOMPANYING IT ALONG WITH NW SWELL TO 8 FT IN THE NE CORNER. THAT FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY WED AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY SETTLES TO 27N68W. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE W HALF INCREASING TO 20-30 KT E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WED REACHING FROM 31N75W TO SE FLORIDA THU MORNING...THEN FROM 31N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR N OF 27N BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL NEAR 31N FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY