000 AGXX40 KNHC 071806 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 106 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 26N/27N RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE FAR NW GULF SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. UNTIL THEN MODERATE WINDS AND MAINLY 2-4 FT SEAS IN THE W GULF AND 1-3 FT SEAS IN THE E GULF WILL PREVAIL. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST MON NIGHT REACHING FROM SW LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE MORNING...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA WED MORNING...MOVING E OF THE GULF LATE WED. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT IN THE NW AND SW GULF WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL AND E GULF. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASING TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WED THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTEND FROM SW PUERTO RICO TO THE NICARAGUAN COAST. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ITS VICINITY. FRESH TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH MAINLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS ELSEWHERE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 12N55W TO 07N68W WITH SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF IT. A ROUND OF FRESH NE-E WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH AS IT ENTERS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN SUN WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE E-SE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL APPROACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE WED. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... 1025 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N65W DOMINATES THE REGION WITH MAINLY MODERATE WINDS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS TODAY THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE NE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SE UNITED STATES COAST MON AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MON NIGHT REACHING FROM 31N76W TO WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN FROM 31N72W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THU. FRESH TO STRONG W-NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ALTHOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN WATERS. CURRENTLY MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS GALE FORCE CONDITIONS AND LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND A DEVELOPING LOW N OF OUR AREA. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY FORECASTER LEWITSKY