000 AGXX40 KNHC 061819 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST FRI JAN 06 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 MB AREA OF HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 26N87W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS SW OF THE HIGH...AND 1-3 FT SEAS NE OF THE HIGH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS IN THE NW GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF MON. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS FRONT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF IT. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH AS A RESULT TAKES THE FRONT FROM SW LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE MORNING...THEN FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN WED MORNING EXITING THE GULF LATE WED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N72W. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT WHICH DID REACH ALL THE WAY TO CENTRAL PANAMA HAS BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. OTHERWISE MODERATE NE-E WINDS EXIST ACROSS THE BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WEAKENS AND BROADENS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE E-SE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...LARGE MIXED NE AND NW SWELL IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC THIS WEEKEND BRINGING A BRIEF SURGE OF FRESH NE-E WINDS. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT IS CLIPPING THE NORTHERN WATERS AND EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO 28N73W. WINDS OF 20-25 KT CAN BE FOUND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 28N AS CAPTURED BY A 1326 UTC ASCAT PASS. A STATIONARY FRONT IS TO THE EACH REACHING FROM 31N55W TO THE NW TIP OF PUERTO RICO. THESE TWO FRONTS WILL MERGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SECOND FRONT CATCHES UP TO THE STATIONARY FRONT WHILE SHIFTING TO THE E. MEANWHILE LARGE NW SWELL OVER THE WATERS E OF 70W WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT THROUGH SUN WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. A THIRD COLD FRONT MAY DROP TO ALONG 31N TUE QUICKLY SHIFTING E OF THE AREA WED. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NW PORTION BY MIDWEEK AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY