000 AGXX40 KNHC 300728 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST FRI DEC 30 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH JUST INLAND FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W SW TO THE SW GULF ZONE. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT SLY WINDS FOR THE TIME BEING WITH BUOY REPORTS SHOWING S-SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT N OF 25N...AND E-SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT S OF 25N W OF 85W AND NE-E 10 KT E OF 85W. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST OF RANGE IN THE FAR SRN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF. THE HIGH CENTER OF 1020 MB WILL MOVE SHIFT SE THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SW TO FAR SRN TEXAS. UPCOMING CHANGES TO THE GULF FOR NEXT WEEK WILL TAKE PLACE ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS TO E OF THE AREA INTO THE WRN ATLC ON SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS INTO THE WRN GULF EARLY SUN AS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF...REACHING FROM THE N/CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SW BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE SUN NIGHT...AND TO E OF THE GULF DURING MON. THE FIRST STRONG HIGH PRES AREA TO BE SEEN THIS EARLY IN THE WINTER SEASON WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO FIRST BRING NW-N WINDS OF 20 KT IN THE FAR NW GULF EARLY ON SUN...THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO N-NE 20-30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON THERE AND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE GULF INTO MUCH OF TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE 30 KT SPEEDS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IN THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE SW GULF NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WINDS PRIMARILY FROM THE NW AND N TO ACQUIRE GALE FORCE STRENGTH ON MON. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS OF UP TO 35 KT IN THAT LOCATION OF THE SW GULF MON AND INTO LATE MON NIGHT BASED ON A 1037 MB HIGH THAT MOVES INTO NE TEXAS. THE GFS HAS A HIGH OF 1038 MB HIGH NEAR THAT SAME LOCATION ON MON ALSO. SO BASED ON THIS WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO WIND AND SEA DETAILS REGARDING CURRENT EXPECTED GALE CONDITIONS HEADLINE FOR THE SW GULF OM MON. THERE MAY BE BRIEF INSTANCES OF WINDS GUSTING TO GALE FORCE IN THE NW GULF VERY CLOSE TO THE TEXAS COAST ON SUN. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE 6 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM NEAR 28N65W SW TO 28N72W THEN DISSIPATING TO CENTRAL CUBA. TO THE NW OF THE BOUNDARY A RIDGE EXTENDS NE TO SW TO JUST N OF THE NW BAHAMAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATES E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS TO ITS WITH LIGHTER SW-W WINDS OF 5-10 KT TO ITS N. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN AND ARE PRESENTLY SHOWING SEAS UP TO 8 FT IN N SWELLS OVER THE SRN SECTION OF THE AREA S OF ABOUT 22N AND E OF THE SE BAHAMAS. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 5-7 FT IN NE SWELLS N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND E OF 75W...AND 2-4 FT W OF 75W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN AS IT LIFTS N. THE N SWELLS OF 8 FT WILL BE SLOW IN SUBSIDING AS WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE HOLDS ON TO THEM THROUGH LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING THEM TO 7 FT EARLY TUE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IS STILL SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS THAT IT MOVES INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA ON SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO POSITION FROM NEAR 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY MON AFTERNOON...AND FROM NEAR 26N65W TO HISPANIOLA BY LATE TUE. NW TO N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT W OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY TUE...WITH POSSIBLE MINIMAL W-NW GALE WINDS N OF 28N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 76W AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS E OVER THE AREA. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO QUITE LARGE VALUES...PERHAPS TO 15-16 FT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WATERS NE OF THE BAHAMAS ON TUE. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ON MON...THEN TO 20-30 KT LATE MON AND TUE N OF 27N. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL N ATLC...AND IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PARTIAL ASCAT DATA FROM LAST NIGHT SHOWED SIMILAR WINDS. WINDS MAY BE UP TO 30 KT ALONG AND VERY NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE NE-E 10-15 KT ...EXCEPT E 15-20 KT IN THE NE PORTION. SEAS ARE HIGH...UP TO 8-10 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND TO 8 FT THROUGH NE PASSAGES IN THE NE CARIBBEAN DUE TO LARGE N SWELLS. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 3-6 FT RANGE. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLC WATERS N OF THE AREA WITH POST FRONTAL HIGH PRES TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT AND INCREASING THE NE-E FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND STILL ON TAP AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. NE-E TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 20-25 KT ELSEWHERE S OF 18N E OF 83W BY LATE SUN. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 13 OR 14 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE LONG E FETCH OF THE 25-30 KT WINDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED W OF 95W MON INTO EARLY TUE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE . .SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 28N W OF FRONT TO 76W TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 300728 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST FRI DEC 30 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH JUST INLAND FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W SW TO THE SW GULF ZONE. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT SLY WINDS FOR THE TIME BEING WITH BUOY REPORTS SHOWING S-SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT N OF 25N...AND E-SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT S OF 25N W OF 85W AND NE-E 10 KT E OF 85W. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST OF RANGE IN THE FAR SRN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF. THE HIGH CENTER OF 1020 MB WILL SHIFT SE THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SW TO FAR SRN TEXAS. UPCOMING CHANGES TO THE GULF FOR NEXT WEEK WILL TAKE PLACE ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS TO E OF THE AREA INTO THE WRN ATLC ON SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS INTO THE WRN GULF EARLY SUN AS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF...REACHING FROM THE N/CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SW BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE SUN NIGHT...AND TO E OF THE GULF DURING MON. THE FIRST STRONG HIGH PRES AREA TO BE SEEN THIS EARLY IN THE WINTER SEASON WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO FIRST BRING NW-N WINDS OF 20 KT IN THE FAR NW GULF EARLY ON SUN...THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO N-NE 20-30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON THERE AND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE GULF INTO MUCH OF TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE 30 KT SPEEDS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IN THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE SW GULF NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WINDS PRIMARILY FROM THE NW AND N TO ACQUIRE GALE FORCE STRENGTH ON MON. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS OF UP TO 35 KT IN THAT LOCATION OF THE SW GULF MON AND INTO LATE MON NIGHT BASED ON A 1037 MB HIGH THAT MOVES INTO NE TEXAS. THE GFS HAS A HIGH OF 1038 MB HIGH NEAR THAT SAME LOCATION ON MON ALSO. SO BASED ON THIS WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO WIND AND SEA DETAILS REGARDING CURRENT EXPECTED GALE CONDITIONS HEADLINE FOR THE SW GULF OM MON. THERE MAY BE BRIEF INSTANCES OF WINDS GUSTING TO GALE FORCE IN THE NW GULF VERY CLOSE TO THE TEXAS COAST ON SUN. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE 6 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM NEAR 28N65W SW TO 28N72W THEN DISSIPATING TO CENTRAL CUBA. TO THE NW OF THE BOUNDARY A RIDGE EXTENDS NE TO SW TO JUST N OF THE NW BAHAMAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATES E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS TO ITS WITH LIGHTER SW-W WINDS OF 5-10 KT TO ITS N. LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN AND ARE PRESENTLY SHOWING SEAS UP TO 8 FT IN N SWELLS OVER THE SRN SECTION OF THE AREA S OF ABOUT 22N AND E OF THE SE BAHAMAS. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 5-7 FT IN NE SWELLS N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND E OF 75W...AND 2-4 FT W OF 75W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN AS IT LIFTS N. THE N SWELLS OF 8 FT WILL BE SLOW IN SUBSIDING AS WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE HOLDS ON TO THEM THROUGH LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING THEM TO 7 FT EARLY TUE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IS STILL SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS THAT IT MOVES INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA ON SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO POSITION FROM NEAR 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY MON AFTERNOON...AND FROM NEAR 26N65W TO HISPANIOLA BY LATE TUE. NW TO N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT W OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY TUE...WITH POSSIBLE MINIMAL W-NW GALE WINDS N OF 28N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 76W AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS E OVER THE AREA. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO QUITE LARGE VALUES...PERHAPS TO 15-16 FT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WATERS NE OF THE BAHAMAS ON TUE. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ON MON...THEN TO 20-30 KT LATE MON AND TUE N OF 27N. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL N ATLC...AND IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PARTIAL ASCAT DATA FROM LAST NIGHT SHOWED SIMILAR WINDS. WINDS MAY BE UP TO 30 KT ALONG AND VERY NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE NE-E 10-15 KT ...EXCEPT E 15-20 KT IN THE NE PORTION. SEAS ARE HIGH...UP TO 8-10 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND TO 8 FT THROUGH NE PASSAGES IN THE NE CARIBBEAN DUE TO LARGE N SWELLS. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 3-6 FT RANGE. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLC WATERS N OF THE AREA WITH POST FRONTAL HIGH PRES TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT AND INCREASING THE NE-E FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND STILL ON TAP AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. NE-E TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 20-25 KT ELSEWHERE S OF 18N E OF 83W BY LATE SUN. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 13 OR 14 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE LONG E FETCH OF THE 25-30 KT WINDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED W OF 95W MON INTO EARLY TUE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE . .SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 28N W OF FRONT TO 76W TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE