000 AGXX40 KNHC 291826 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST THU DEC 29 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE FL/GA BORDER WILL SHIFT SE TO OVER CENTRAL FL WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO THE TX COAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. THEN THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E ALLOWING A COLD FRONT...ORIENTATED ALMOST E-W...TO MOVE S INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RACE SE ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS SUN NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD S ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE N-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ABOUT 6 HOURS BEHIND FRONT...EXCEPT OVER THE SW ZONE WHERE THE NW-N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A MINIMAL GALE MON MORNING... AND PERSIST OVER THE SW WATERS TILL JUST AFTER SUNRISE TUE. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE SE OVER THE NW WATERS LATE TUE...WHILE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS BY SUNRISE WED. NOTE THAT 12Z GFS RUN IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH FRONT THAT PREVIOUS RUN. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N60W TO 28N66W THEN NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE CUBAN COAST AT 78W WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT W LATE TONIGHT...AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SEPARATE SE TO S WINDS WITH MIXING SE AND NW SWELL TO ITS E FROM LIGHT W WINDS W OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE N OF THE BAHAMIAN CHAIN...AND LIGHT NE WINDS THROUGHOUT AND SW OF THE BAHAMAS W OF THE FRONT. A DRY FRONT WILL RACE E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N FRI NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT SW-W 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT. THIS SECOND FRONT SHOULD MERGE WITH THE INITIAL FRONTS REMNANTS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. A THIRD STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT...AND OVERTAKE WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE TWO PREVIOUS MERGED FRONTS ON MON NIGHT...WITH THE NEW MERGED COLD FRONT CONTINUING E AND REACHING FROM 31N55W TO HISPANIOLA LATE TUE NIGHT. N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ALL WATERS W OF FRONT TUE AFTERNOON AND FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT SW OF THE BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... NE-E WINDS CONTINUE AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE AREA E OF 80W WITH NE-E 10-15 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLC WATERS N OF THE AREA WITH POST FRONTAL HIGH PRES TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT AND INCREASING THE NE-E FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. NE-E TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 20-25 KT ELSEWHERE S OF 18N E OF 83W BY LATE SUN. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED W OF 95W MON INTO EARLY TUE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE . .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON